Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Beats Q3 2026 Estimates on Record Output
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 5, 2026.
Record production of 156,239 Boe per day let management raise full-year output guidance without adding a dollar to the capital budget, a rare combination in shale right now. Leverage fell below 1.5 times a quarter early, and the dividend holds at roughly a 7.2% annualized yield.
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Northern Oil and Gas reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 for the third quarter of 2026, clearing the Wall Street consensus of $1.06 by about 24%. It was the fifth consecutive quarter the company topped expectations, and revenue of $697.7 million beat estimates of $605.9 million by more than 15%, rising 43.6% from the same period a year earlier.
The production machine behind those numbers ran at record pace. Total output hit 156,239 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 19% year over year and 7.3% sequentially. Natural gas volumes were especially strong, climbing 39% from a year ago to 488,391 Mcf per day, helped by an Appalachian joint development program in West Virginia and accelerating activity in the Utica. The company added 23.9 net wells to production in the quarter, nearly double the 12.7 it added in Q2 2026.
One of the more notable details in the report is what management did not spend. Full-year production guidance was raised to a range of 147,000 to 150,000 Boe per day, up from the prior band of 143,000 to 148,000, while the capital budget was held unchanged at $850 to $900 million. CEO Nick O'Grady framed it plainly: 'We expect to deliver more for the same capital.' Free cash flow for the quarter came in at roughly $148.6 million, more than double the year-ago figure.
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The company used that cash to trim its debt load by more than $100 million during the quarter, pushing leverage to 1.47 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA, reaching its sub-1.5 target a full quarter ahead of schedule. The board also repurchased 667,989 shares at an average price of $23.96 and declared a $0.45 quarterly dividend, maintaining an annualized yield of approximately 7.2%.
The GAAP income statement looked quite different from the adjusted figures. A $308 million non-cash mark-to-market loss on commodity derivatives pushed the GAAP result to a net loss of $1.06 per diluted share. That kind of derivative swing is a recurring feature of the company's reporting, so investors tend to focus on the adjusted numbers and operating cash flow, which came in at $397.7 million for the quarter.
On the risk side, the company flagged that capital expenditures are tracking toward the high end of guidance. It also cited potential disruption from a possible Dakota Access Pipeline shutdown, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical instability, including developments in the Middle East and Venezuela, as factors that could affect future results.
Mentioned: NOG