Olin Q3 2026: Freeport Outage, Weak Guidance, and a Delayed Merger

Olin's third quarter was undercut by a vinyl chloride monomer plant outage at its Freeport, Texas facility that cost $32.1 million in higher expenses and lost profit. That single event was the primary drag on the Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment, which is Olin's largest reporting unit with $850.8 million in quarterly revenue.

GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.13, missing expectations, while revenue of $1.75 billion also fell short of estimates. Net income fell 66.5% year over year to $14.4 million, even as revenue edged higher compared with the same quarter last year.

The quarter also carried $13.7 million in acquisition-related costs tied to the pending all-stock merger with Huntsman Corporation, which added another layer of pressure to margins. On the positive side, the Epoxy segment swung to a $0.6 million profit from a $32.2 million loss in the prior year, and Winchester segment earnings rose to $33.8 million on higher commercial ammunition pricing and volume.

The bigger concern for investors is what comes next. Olin guided fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA to just $80 million to $100 million, citing normal seasonality, elevated customer destocking in Chemicals, higher feedstock costs, pressure from subsidized Asian exports, and significant planned maintenance turnarounds. CEO Ken Lane acknowledged the challenging environment while maintaining that the company's value-first commercial approach remains intact.

The Huntsman merger timeline has also slipped. Both companies' shareholders approved the transaction and the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period expired, but the close has moved from late 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, pending remaining regulatory approvals. With net debt to adjusted EBITDA running at 5.2 times, any further delay keeps leverage elevated at a moment when earnings visibility is limited.