Rigetti Computing Q3 2026: Revenue Misses Expectations, Full Year Rests on Q4

Rigetti Computing reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.41 million, missing the $3.52 million consensus estimate and falling about 28% from the $1.95 million it posted in the same quarter a year earlier. The shortfall reflects the inherent lumpiness of Rigetti's project-based model, where on-premises system deliveries and customer acceptance milestones can shift meaningful revenue from one quarter to the next.

The adjusted loss per share came in at $0.06, missing the $0.05 consensus estimate. On an operating basis, losses widened to $33.2 million from $20.6 million a year ago, driven largely by a surge in R&D spending to $25.5 million as the company accelerated work on its chiplet-based quantum hardware roadmap. A $25.3 million non-cash gain from the change in fair value of derivative warrant liabilities narrowed the GAAP net loss to $3.1 million, a figure investors should read carefully given its non-cash nature.

Despite the quarter's shortfall, management held its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $20 million. Nine-month 2026 revenue stands at $10.9 million, meaning virtually all of the remaining target depends on customer acceptance of the C-DAC system in the fourth quarter. That single pending event is now the most important near-term catalyst for the stock.

On the technology side, CEO Subodh Kulkarni pointed to progress that investors in early-stage quantum companies tend to watch as closely as the financials. The Cepheus-1-108Q system hit 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity at the 100-plus-qubit level, meeting a stated performance milestone. Looking further out, the company is targeting a 300-plus-qubit system with roughly 99.7% median two-qubit fidelity and sub-60-nanosecond gate speeds by mid-2028, and a roughly 1,000-qubit system within approximately three years.

Rigetti also signed a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for an award of up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act R&D Office Broad Agency Announcement, adding a meaningful government funding runway to support its hardware development. Cash and equivalents stood at $45.8 million at quarter end, up 75% year over year, while shareholders' equity reached $542 million. The balance sheet provides some buffer, though the near-term revenue story hinges on C-DAC acceptance in Q4, without which guidance is likely to be missed by a significant margin.