Rate hikes are back on the table: what a 90% December odds reading means
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 11, 2026.
A check-in on the wine biz
- Core CPI rose 3.1% and headline 0.4%, both above expectations; Goolsbee called it 'borderline disturbing'
- Susan Schmidt: inflation running ~3.7% annualized vs the Fed's 2% target, with no progress made
- Markets price a 90% chance of a December rate hike, plus more increases into 2027
- Wine's average winery bottle price went from ~$38 in 2017 to ~$55 in 2025, pushing consumers away
The rate-cut trade is gone: a portfolio manager puts December hike odds at 90%, with further increases penciled in for 2027 because tightening so far has barely dented prices. Anyone positioned for easing is on the wrong side of this.
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Headline CPI rose 0.4%, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the report 'borderline disturbing,' signaling policymakers will not look past it.
Inflation is running well above the Fed's 2% target, and that gap is what has repriced the entire rate outlook.
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Markets now price a 90% probability of a December rate hike, leaving anyone positioned for cuts on the wrong side of the trade. The window to reposition narrows with each inflation report.
Average winery bottle prices have climbed to roughly $55, pushing buyers away from domestic producers toward cheaper alternatives. It is an early warning for premium consumer categories.