TLT keeps drawing inflows as prices fall, and history says that's a trap
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 2, 2026.
Bloomberg's ETF analyst says the inflows chasing long-duration Treasuries lower have historically been the wrong trade, a direct shot at anyone averaging down right now.
SWEET TEMPTATION: Money keeps pouring into $TLT as it keeps going down, and the more it goes down the more tempting it gets, like a bowl of ice cream and each 1% move down is another topping and you're starving. If history is any guide it's best to just walk past the ice cream https://t.co/bZUwU64Ouu
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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on October 2 that money is continuing to flow into the long-duration Treasury ETF even as its price slides, a pattern he describes as a sweet temptation that gets harder to resist with every additional leg down.
He compares each 1% drop to another topping on a bowl of ice cream you're starving for, making the dip feel more like an opportunity the longer it continues. His explicit conclusion, drawn from history, is that the right move is to walk past it entirely.
Investors averaging down into a falling rate-sensitive fund are effectively betting that long-term yields have peaked and will reverse, a trade that has repeatedly punished buyers who stepped in too early during prior rate cycles.
With the post drawing 153 likes as of its posting, the commentary landed with an audience already wrestling with the same temptation Balchunas is warning against.
Mentioned: TLT