Kalshi traders put a 60% chance on Tesla-SpaceX merger within a year
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 16, 2026.
Kalshi traders now price a Tesla-SpaceX combination at 60% within a year, a record, and one of Tesla's most-followed commentators just pushed it to his feed. That is a crowd probability only.
RT @Kalshi: BREAKING: 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge within the next year — an all-time high. https://t.co/O89YScRooX
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Prediction market platform Kalshi now prices the probability of a Tesla and SpaceX combination at 60% within the next year, which the platform describes as an all-time high on that contract.
The figure is a crowd-derived probability from real-money traders, with no confirmed deal, regulatory filing, or statement from either company behind it.
Sawyer Merritt, one of the most closely followed Tesla commentators on X, retweeted the Kalshi post on October 16, 2026, pushing the signal to a broad audience of retail and institutional observers who track Tesla news in real time.
A record implied probability amplified by a high-profile voice in the same window sharpens investor attention fast, even without any underlying confirmation.
Mentioned: TSLA