Gas at $4.28 a Gallon Is Draining $118 Billion From Consumer Spending
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on September 10, 2026.
Gasoline at $4.28 a gallon pulls 0.5% out of disposable income, money that discretionary retailers and restaurants were counting on this quarter.
$118 shock https://t.co/QyqjlGaD7x [Quoted @KevRGordon]: .@RenMacLLC: “Retail gasoline prices are $4.28 per gallon on average…$1.08 per gallon higher than the same day last year. Doing the math, this works out to a $118 billion shock to disposable income, or 0.5%.” https://t.co/XEQXAjzw1G
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Retail gasoline has climbed to $4.28 per gallon on average, and Renaissance Macro Research puts the year-over-year increase at a $118 billion hit to disposable income, equal to 0.5% of the total.
That 0.5% may sound modest, but disposable income is the fuel that powers consumer spending across every other category. When a larger slice of household budgets flows straight into the gas tank, the dollars available for restaurants, clothing, electronics, and leisure shrink in direct proportion.
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Discretionary retailers and restaurant chains are especially exposed. Spending in those categories tends to be the first thing households trim when energy costs rise, since filling the car comes first.
Jim Cramer flagged the RenMac note with a two-word summary, "$118 shock," signaling that the scale of the income hit is the number worth watching. With the figure now in wide circulation, investors in consumer-facing sectors will be stress-testing their same-store sales assumptions against a backdrop where the American consumer has measurably less to spend.