Anthropic reaches out to NYC Comptroller ahead of its IPO

Kalshi traders now price a Tesla-SpaceX combination at 60% within a year, a record, and one of Tesla's most-followed commentators just pushed it to his feed. That is a crowd probability only.

RT @Kalshi: BREAKING: 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge within the next year — an all-time high. https://t.co/O89YScRooX

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Factory output nearly doubled the forecast, but a 1.1% jump in import prices hands the inflation camp fresh ammunition ahead of the Fed's next move.

Industrial Production rose 0.7% versus 0.4% expected, with Capacity Utilization at 76.9% versus the 76.5% estimate. Import Prices increased 1.1% for the month, slightly above the 1.0% forecast. https://t.co/n2rVku46cY

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Rate traders just lost their guidance crutch: Warsh says the Fed is out of the hint-giving business, and the October blackout starts now. Five officials preaching "no urgency" leaves cut bets and yields riding on data alone.

After two weeks in which no fewer than five Fed officials hit some variant of the "no urgency" theme in their public comments (including as recently as Wednesday before and after CPI) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said of providing market-guiding hints, "We're not in that business https://t.co/ia9f3QVmOT https://t.co/VB29ZjWkU2 [Quoted @NickTimiraos]: Last round of Fed-speak before Warsh tonight and the October blackout. All of these comments were made Wednesday: Bowman (a few hours *before* CPI): "I don't feel any urgency... We really need to take some time and understand how things will evolve within the economy." Goolsbee

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Any US-Russia Arctic LNG cooperation implies sanctions relief on projects like Yamal, and that would put sanctioned Russian volumes back in competition with American export terminals for European buyers.

PUTIN'S ENVOY DMITRIEV: RUSSIA, US DISCUSS PROJECTS IN ARCTIC, LNG

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Back-to-back Musk earnings days land October 20 and 21, so Tesla's report arrives with SpaceX numbers already setting the mood.

SpaceX has announced that they will release their Q3 earnings on October 20th (next Tuesday). Tesla's Q3 earnings will be on October 21st (next Wednesday). https://t.co/AaAXvJN4TO

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A 10-year back above 5.1% raises the discount rate under every growth multiple and every mortgage quote. The long end is driving the steepening, with 2s10s now at +35.7bps.

*US 10Y YIELD RISES 3.8BPS TO 5.125% AFTER ECONOMIC DATA *US 30Y YIELD RISES 3.04BPS TO 5.458% *US 2Y YIELD RISES 1.45BPS TO 4.766% *US 2Y-10Y YIELD SPREAD AT +35.7BPS

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A sitting Fed chair signaling that AI will reshape how inflation gets measured means rate decisions may soon run on a different set of inputs than the ones traders have modeled for decades.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh says AI is going to "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts. "We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture." https://t.co/xTuXjBBIBi

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The headline doubled the 0.4% forecast, but utilities did the heavy lifting at +3.5% while factory output merely met expectations, so this is a weaker argument for a December hike than it looks.

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN SEPTEMBER U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in September, beating expectations of 0.4%. 🔸 Manufacturing: +0.3% (in line) 🔸 Utilities: +3.5% 🔸 Mining: +0.2% 🔸 Capacity utilization: 76.9% (forecast 76.5%) 🔸 Industrial

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Oct. 20 is the first real read on launch cadence and Starlink subscriber economics now that SpaceX reports as a public company.

JUST IN: SpaceX, $SPCX, will release Q3 2026 results and host a webcast on Oct. 20, 2026.

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Ortex pegs one day of CoreWeave bearish bets at $806 million in paper gains, a sign of how heavily shorts are positioned against AI-infrastructure debt risk.

$CRWV - COREWEAVE SHORT SELLERS MADE AROUND $806 MLN IN PAPER PROFIT ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN STOCK FELL 15.5% - ORTEX

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Berlin naming Iran a direct threat to Europe puts another sanctions round on the table, and European defense and energy names are the first to reprice on that language.

GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER: EUROPE IS IN IRAN'S SIGHTS, WE WILL NOT TOLERATE IRAN'S HOSTILE ACITIVITIES

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