Polymarket puts Democrats at 68% to sweep the midterms

Traders now put a 34% chance on US crude clearing $110 before month-end, with Brent within 2% of a four-year high. Energy names and the inflation path both hinge on whether that bid holds.

BREAKING: There is now a new high 34% chance of US crude oil prices rising above $110/barrel by the end of this month. This comes as Brent crude oil prices are now less than 2% away from hitting a fresh 4-year high. $100+ oil is back. https://t.co/fjIQrxp4O4

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Traders are pricing the crown as a coin flip with roughly two months left, meaning Apple's lead over Nvidia and Microsoft is thin enough to flip on a single earnings reaction.

42% chance Apple is the world's largest company at year-end. https://t.co/1PnIRWWAK5

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Doubling the average annual fee in six years is the clearest read yet on how much pricing power American Express has with affluent cardholders, and how much of its fee income depends on them staying.

The average fee for an American Express card is $136 per year. That's ~2x what cardholders were paying in 2020. $AXP https://t.co/5Suhbwo1Pb

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The headline beat masks the part that matters: current conditions slid to 46.7 from 50.9 as inflation fears climbed, a combination that gives the Fed little cover heading into holiday spending season.

U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BEATS EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION FEARS RISE October's final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 48.0 vs. 46.3 expected, but remained below September's 48.1. 🔸 Current conditions: 46.7 vs. 50.9 prior 🔸 Consumer expectations: 48.8 vs.

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A 3,500-person cut at a card issuer that has leaned on premium spending growth puts the 2027 expense line at the center of the story. Visa's recent reduction makes this the second major network-side payroll cut in short order.

BREAKING: American Express, $AXP, is laying off 5% of its employees, or 3,500 people, in an effort to contain rising costs. The company's CEO says the cuts are part of an effort to make the company "more agile and efficient."

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Washington opens the reserve only when a refiner cannot source crude elsewhere, so this 400,000-barrel exchange signals a real feedstock crunch at Lake Charles. Gulf Coast fuel spreads and refining margins carry the follow-through.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ANNOUNCES AUTHORIZATION OF EMERGENCY EXCHANGE OF UP TO 400,000 BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL FROM SPR TO ADDRESS CRUDE OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION AFFECTING PHILLIPS 66 LAKE CHARLES REFINERY IN LOUISIANA

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A $100 million check clears one US regulatory overhang off Shein's books just as it courts public-market investors, but it also sets a price tag for the scrutiny still ahead of any listing.

CHINESE FAST FASHION PLATFORM SHEIN TO PAY $100 MILLION IN US FTC PROBE SETTLEMENT, SOURCE SAYS SHEIN SAYS IT HAS REACHED 'CONSTRUCTIVE OUTCOME' WITH UNITED STATES FTC

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Five weeks of gains are gone on a decline of less than half a percent, which tells you how thin the cushion under this market had become.

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ HIT A FIVE-WEEK LOW; LAST DOWN 0.4% AND 0.2%, RESPECTIVELY

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Triple-digit crude at a one-month high pushes energy producers and pump prices back to the front of the inflation debate.

BREAKING: Crude Oil rises +2.6% to above $103/bbl., a 1-month high https://t.co/NuZo2Eedio

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Equities have never been this expensive relative to the real economy, and Hedgeye is flagging it as a record. Buffett's favorite valuation gauge at 200% leaves no cushion if earnings growth slows.

Stock market value has hit 200% of GDP, the highest ever https://t.co/unNMosWBRN

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