S&P 500 Averages +17.2% in Post-Midterm Years Since 1950
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 27, 2026.
With the November vote days away, the seasonal case says the strongest stretch of the presidential cycle starts right after it: 17 of 19 post-midterm years finished higher.
US stocks tend to rally following Midterm elections: The S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the year following Midterm elections since 1950, the strongest return of any year in the Presidential cycle. The index has finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years https://t.co/MR0egZDr5k
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The year after a Midterm election is, historically, the single strongest leg of the four-year presidential cycle. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 17.2% in those 12 months, a return that outpaces every other year in the cycle.
The index finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years on record, leaving only two losing years across more than seven decades of data.
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With the November vote days away, that seasonal setup is about to come into frame for investors who track cyclical patterns. A sample of 19 observations is not enormous, but only two exceptions across that span is a difficult track record to ignore.
What matters now is whether the current macro environment resembles the conditions that accompanied those prior post-Midterm advances, since the calendar is only one input.