S&P 500's perfect post-midterm record: what 75 years of data show
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 1, 2026.
A perfect 75-year record is the most-cited bull case heading into next year, though the sample is only about 19 elections and none of them faced a Fed openly discussing more rate hikes.
S&P 500 is higher 6 and 12 months after every midterm election over the last 75 years 📈🤑🥳 https://t.co/N1Eu0fZDie
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Barchart's post on X flags a pattern investors cannot ignore heading into next year: the S&P 500 has finished higher both six and twelve months after every midterm election across the last 75 years.
That kind of consistency is rare in financial markets, where sample sizes are usually too small to carry much weight. An unbroken record across decades and a wide range of economic backdrops gives this pattern more credibility than most seasonal rules of thumb.
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The standing caveat heading into next year, as noted in the commentary around this post, is that none of those prior elections played out against a Federal Reserve openly discussing additional rate hikes. When the cost of money is actively in flux, historical patterns built on different monetary conditions deserve some extra scrutiny.
A perfect long-run record argues for staying positioned in equities through the post-midterm window, while the current rate environment introduces a variable the historical sample never had to absorb. How the Fed's guidance evolves will matter as much as the calendar pattern itself.