S&P 500 profits on pace for a 35% surge at a rare point in the cycle
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 2, 2026.
A 35% profit surge this deep into a cycle is the bull case bears have no answer for, and it is why index earnings are carrying this market.
RT @charliebilello: The S&P 500's earnings boom is simply unprecedented this late into an economic cycle. Profits are on pace to surge 35%…
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Charlie Bilello flagged on November 2 that S&P 500 earnings are on pace to surge 35%, a figure he describes as simply unprecedented this late into an economic cycle.
Late-cycle earnings growth typically slows as margins compress and demand softens. A 35% profit surge at this stage of the cycle inverts the usual playbook entirely.
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For investors who have been waiting for the bull market to run out of fundamental support, this data point is the specific obstacle. Index earnings at this trajectory are doing the heavy lifting for valuations, and the bears have not produced a clean counter to it.
Bilello's post is circulating widely among market participants who recognize how unusual the setup is. The number to keep watching is whether that earnings pace holds through the next reporting season.