S&P 500's 4.4% Single-Day Drop and What History Says Comes Next
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 8, 2026.
Thursday's 4.4% slide was the worst single day since April 2025, and the 56 comparable drops since 1952 argue against selling into it.
History says last week's drop was a buying opportunity. On Thursday, the S&P 500 declined -4.4%, its largest daily drop since April 2025. Before that day, the index recorded 56 one-day declines of at least -4.0% since 1952. Following such drops, the S&P 500 has gained +1.0% on https://t.co/7k9b48NjI2
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Thursday's decline of 4.4% in the S&P 500 was its steepest single-day loss since April 2025, the kind of move that historically prompts investors to question whether selling into weakness is the right call.
The Kobeissi Letter went back through S&P 500 history to 1952 and found 56 prior instances of a one-day drop of at least 4.0%. That is a relatively rare occurrence across decades of market data, which gives the historical pattern some weight.
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Following each of those 56 comparable selloffs, the S&P 500 gained 1.0% on the next trading session. The consistency of that bounce frames last week's decline as an entry point.
The original post was truncated before the complete data was visible, so forward returns beyond that immediate next-day figure were not available. What the data does provide is the one-day recovery figure and the count of historical analogs, both of which point toward stabilization.