Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) produced an ugly set of forecasts for 2014 and 2015. Shareholders paid the price, as the number two car company in America presented its “2020 Vision.” One of the core assumptions of Ford’s forecast was the fate of its flagship F-Series pickup, the top-selling vehicle in the United States.

Ford management commented:

Ford, with the 2015 F-150, is the first automaker to use high-strength, military-grade aluminum alloys in the body of a mass-market vehicle and plans to expand its aluminum use to include the next-generation Super Duty. The use of aluminum allows Ford to maintain its truck leadership, improve capability and durability across its entire lineup, and deliver better gas mileage.

The manufacturer’s executives face the challenge of whether pickup buyers care about these features. Ford needs a boost for F-Series sales, which have languished this year, at least in the United States. Ford’s sales lead appears to be so strong that it does not have to worry. However, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) has banked a great deal on its Chevy Silverado, and the growth in sales of Chrysler’s Dodge Ram has been extraordinary.

Three of the top-selling vehicles in the United States during August were pickups, and the trend for the first eight months of the year was not much different. During the month, Ford sold 68,109 F-Series pickups, but volume dropped 4.2% from the same period of last year. Sales of the Silverado rose 12.8% to 49,201. Sales of the Dodge Ram were up 32.6% to 43,775. Ram monthly sales are on a trajectory to pass Silverado later this year.

Yet, F-Series sales were 39% higher than Silverado’s in August, which is a large gulf to bridge. The process of catching F-Series sales would take year, if it can be done at all. Ford’s anxiety should be less about whether it can keep a lead than whether F-Series sales will grow or remain flat. Flat sales are hardly a victory, as Ford needs more catalysts to make or exceed its forecasts.

ALSO READ: Should Ford Have Been Trashed This Much?

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