Thanks to the Volkswagen emissions scandal, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) now have a chance to step into the gap in the European passenger car market. GM sold nearly 288,000 units in Europe last month, up 1.1% since last November. Volkswagen’s European market share is down almost a full percentage point over the same time frame. Ford had its best October in Europe since 2009, with sales growing 3% year over year. Whether GM and Ford can capitalize meaningfully on the slump in Volkswagen’s Europe sales long term depends on how consumers choose to react to the scandal.
Why specifically GM and Ford though? Because data released in late September shows that diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and Jeep all have had serious problems with emissions in normal driving conditions. This knocks out the top three car companies in Europe by market share as being tainted with emissions problems. Right behind them are Ford and GM. BMW, right below, is in a different price range.
The widening of the diesel emissions issue to other brands can alter the whole push for diesel passenger cars for good. Diesel cars were thought to produce less pollution and were widely touted to be better for the environment, but the data now proves otherwise. Diesel fuel emits higher levels of NOx pollutants, making it very hard for these cars to pass standard emission testing legitimately. It also has been reported that diesel passenger cars emit more NOx than even some trucks and buses. Governments are now reviewing their stance on diesel, and we may see soon new procedures discouraging diesel engines for passenger cars. This won’t affect Ford or GM very much, but it will greatly affect their European competitors.
It will take several months, if not a few years, for the data to display a full picture, but right now it looks like good news for Ford and GM in Europe.
By Matt Winkler
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