COVID-19: How Cases in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metro Area Compare to Other Major Metros

The U.S. reported over 590,000 new cases of coronavirus over the seven days ending March 1, bringing the total count to more than 78.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 941,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate. In the past week, there were an average of 24.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 37.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While new data shows that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is high in almost every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks and superspreader events. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro area consists of Cook County, DuPage County, Lake County, and 11 other counties. As of March 1, there were 21,909.0 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 Chicago residents, 9.5% lower than the national rate. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 24,221.7 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The incidence of coronavirus cases depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area, Jasper County has the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases. As of March 1, there were 26,743.8 cases per 100,000 residents in Jasper County, the most of any county in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, and far greater than the county with the lowest incidence. In Newton County, there were 18,088.9 cases per 100,000 residents — the least of any county in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area, unemployment peaked at 17.6% in April 2020. As of November 2021, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 5.6%.

To determine how the incidence of COVID-19 in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro area compares to the rest of the country, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked metro areas based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Illinois where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).