Asking a technician or chartist about directional movement is often mind-numbing for fundamental investors. Basing future price movement prediction solely on the past without a care about the underlying fundamentals and without a care about the news headlines confuses many investors. That being said, most investors at least are cognizant of some chart events being important or at least that sometimes they should at least review of chart. After last week’s gold pricing action many investors may be very nervous if you look at the chart of the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD).
After taking a look at the “GLD” chart the concerns are growing. Since its major move at the end of 2008 there had not been a single time that the SPDR Gold Trust shares had violated the key 200-day moving average. If you look at the mining ETF via the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), the gold bulls may argue that the mining sector violated the 200-day moving average on multiple occasions and still traded higher! Some technicians may watch other metrics on the GLD for long-term trends but many will fear that this means that the monstrous run higher at a minimum cannot recover at the same pace. Other technicians may argue that gold has peaked outright, just like Dennis Gartman has raised concern about recently.
It is at least somewhat interesting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered the ratings of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) as well as Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) this morning, both were downgraded to “Sell” from an already cautious “Neutral” rating. AngloGold is somehow up almost 1% at $41.52 today and Rangold is down 0.3% at $101.50. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) was recently raised to “Sector Outperform” from “Sector Perform” by Scotia Capital.
What is so confusing for many gold bugs and investors alike is that the news headlines would make you think that gold has everything going for it. Iran flexing its muscle… The Euro Zone debt crisis… The possibility that the Euro disappears or is altered… Sovereign debt credit rating downgrades… China’s central bank buying gold… Uncertainty… and more. It is the rise of the U.S. Dollar again that is capping gold’s positive aspects. Besides that, gold reached the point that many market participants just cannot afford to use the metal for anything now.
If you go back to the “GLD” as the measurement for most spot gold investors today, that would be $157.36 as to where the 200-day moving average is now versus $154.90 after a 0.2% drop today. The “GLD” chart below from stockcharts.com shows a 3-year history for our readers.
JON C. OGG