Commodities & Metals

Crop Forecasts Slashed Again (CORN, SOYB)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture now estimates that the U.S. corn crop will fall 2.2 billion bushels lower than the estimate provided just a month ago, to 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since the 2006/2007 crop year. The department’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) also forecasts a drop of an additional 9.4 million tons in the oilseed crops.

Hot, dry weather in the nation’s main food growing region gets the blame. Nearly 60% of the United States is suffering from some level of drought this summer.

The corn crop yield is now projected at 123.4 bushels per acre, down from last month’s estimate of 146 bushels per acre. The original estimate called for a yield of 166 bushels per acre. The current estimate would be the lowest corn crop yield since 1995/1996.

The lowered yield estimates also affect the corn stockpiles going into next year. Last month, corn stocks were estimated at 1.18 billion bushels at the end of the current crop year. This month’s estimate is cut nearly in half, to just 650 million bushels.

The U.S. soybean crop estimate dropped by 358 million bushels, to 2.7 million bushels. The yield estimate for soybeans fell to 36.1 bushels per acre, down 4.4 bushels from last month’s estimate, and down 5.4 bushels per acre from last year’s actual yield.

The Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEMKT: CORN) was down about 0.3% in premarket trading at $51.79 in a 52-week range of $35.24 to $52.14.

The Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSEMKT: SOYB) was up 0.5% at $26.82 in a 52-week range of $20.42 to $27.49.

The WASDE report is available here.

Paul Ausick