Commodities & Metals

Can Freeport-McMoRan Rise Again?

Paul Ausick

Published: December 2, 2015 1:35 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 4:33 pm

Since the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year, shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) have lost about 10% of their value. From their peak on October 9, the shares traded down about 38% in the noon hour of Wednesday.

And one of the world’s other major copper miners, BHP Billiton PLC (NYSE: BHP) said on Tuesday that it does not expect the price for copper to improve for another couple of years. By 2020, however, the company sees demand outstripping supply as older, less productive mines can’t be replaced quickly enough.

Freeport and other copper miners are struggling to complete costly capital projects soon, however, hoping that higher grade ores in the new mines will lower their costs of production from over $1.00 a pound, a necessity when commodity prices are barely above $2.00 a pound.

But the company’s biggest problem is not its copper mines, it’s the oil and gas assets for which Freeport-McMoRan paid around $25 billion only a year or so before the bottom fell out of the oil market. The company now wants to spin off both McMoRan Exploration and Plains Exploration & Production, largely the result of prodding from activist investor Carl Icahn. Even if the company can find a buyer, it won’t find one willing to pay the price Freeport paid in 2013.

Freeport may fare even worse if it fails to sort out its disagreements with the government of Indonesia. These include a price for the government-mandated sale of a 10% stake in the company’s Indonesian affiliate, bringing the government’s total share of ownership in Freeport Indonesia to about 20%. Another 10% of the company must be divested by 2019.

In exchange the government is dangling approval of Freeport’s license to operate its giant Grasberg beyond the current expiration date of 2021. The company says that its investment in expanding the mine depends on a licensing agreement that runs far enough into the future to make the capital costs worth it.

The company expects to reduce its production costs to $0.61 per pound at Grasberg next year, largely due to higher grade ore. With current spot prices of around $2.05 a pound for copper, cost reductions are critical to the company’s ability to stop the damage to its share price.

Freeport’s stock was among the most heavily traded Wednesday, and the price is down about 4.7% at $7.93, in a 52-week range of $7.76 to $26.89. The consensus price target for the stock is $14.29, and the high target is $20.00.

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