Commodities & Metals

How to View Gold Mining Earnings for Barrick, Goldcorp, Kinross, Agnico

After markets close on Wednesday, four U.S.-traded gold miners will report earnings: Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM).

Last week, the second-largest U.S.-traded miner, Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), reported better-than-expected earnings per share and slightly higher than projected production.

Based on spot prices, the price of the yellow metal has risen about 25% year to date, with most of the increase coming in the first quarter. That was the period when crude oil prices were at the lowest in 2016 and demand for gold as an alternate investment was rising as well.

By the early July, gold prices had risen to a new 52-week high and crude oil prices had begun falling as investors and traders worried about inventory gluts in both the crude and gasoline supplies.

Gold mining stocks have outperformed gold both over the past year and the year to date. Barrick traded nearly 190% higher Wednesday morning than it did a year ago, Kinross was up more than 170%, Agnico traded up 126% and the laggard, Goldcorp, has still gained 43% over the past 12 months. Year to date, the share prices for the miners is about the same or better for these four companies.

So why are gold miners’ stocks outpacing gold itself? The U.K. vote to leave the European Union lit a fire under mining stocks in late June, but primarily the gold miners were so downtrodden that they traded at steep discounts and had become oversold. Debt-to-EBITDA was (and remains) high, a negative to be true, but one that has been more than offset by lower production costs.

The following is how the four mining companies that report after the bell Wednesday look to analysts.

Barrick is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15, up from $0.05 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues are forecast at $2.07 billion, down from $2.23 billion a year ago. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a rich 22.50, and the price-to-book ratio is 3.36. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $5.91 to $23.47, and the consensus 12-month price target on the stock is $21.78. Shares traded at $20.75 Wednesday, up about 1.3% for the day.

Analysts are looking for Goldcorp to post EPS of $0.02 and revenues of $905.66 million. Both totals are short of last year’s quarterly EPS of $0.08 and $1.19 billion in revenues. The P/E ratio on the stock is 29.21, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.19. Goldcorp’s 52-week range is $9.46 to $20.38, and shares traded at $18.41 in the noon hour Wednesday, up about 0.6% for the day. The consensus price target is $21.86.

Kinross is forecast to post a profit of $0.01, compared with a profit of $0.02 in the second quarter of last year. Revenues are expected to rise from $755.2 million a year ago to $861.43 million this year. The forward P/E ratio is 25.42, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.43. The stock’s 52-week range is $1.31 to $5.82. Kinross traded around $4.82 Wednesday, down about 0.2% for the day. The consensus price target is $6.24.

The fourth gold miner reporting is Agnico Eagle, and analysts are looking for EPS of $0.10, compared with EPS of $0.09 a year ago. Revenues are forecast to remain relatively flat at $388 million, compared with $386 million in the second quarter of 2015. The forward P/E ratio is a heady 43.51, and the price-to-book value is 2.75. The stock trades in a 52-week range of $21.00 to $57.06, and it was trading Wednesday at around $52.94. The consensus price target is $56.24.

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