Commodities & Metals

Which Gold Stocks Will Survive Gold at 5-Year Lows

gold bars nuggets
Source: Thinkstock
Is gold the new coal? Gold traded Monday morning at $1,103.60 per ounce, about $80 an ounce below its price of five years ago. That is about 6.7% lower. Thermal coal was priced at about $41 a ton on Friday, down about 33% from its level in July of 2010. Gold’s drop is no threat to coal yet, but as with the coal producers, there are going to be winners and losers in the gold mining business.

The top five gold miners by market cap are Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) with a market cap of around $10.9 billion; Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) at $9.8 billion; Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), $8.5 billion; Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD), $5.5 billion; and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM), $4.97 billion. All traded down by around 5% to 10% Monday morning.

Goldcorp traded down 7.8% at $13.54 in a 52-year range of $13.37 to $29.65. The low was set earlier in the morning. Over the past five years, Goldcorp’s shares have dropped just over 66%. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2016 is 19.31 and the price-to-book ratio for the trailing 12 months is 0.71. As of the end of June, short interest in the stock totaled 11.62 million shares, about 1.4% of the total float. The consensus price target on the stock is $23.79, implying potential upside of 75.7%.

Newmont traded down about 9.6% at $18.72, in 52-week range of $17.60 to $27.90. Over the past five years, Newmont’s stock has dropped about 68.5%. The forward P/E ratio for 2016 is 15.5, and the price-to-book ratio for the trailing 12 months is 0.99. As of June 30, short interest in the stock totaled 9.3 million shares, about 1.8% of the total float. The consensus price target on the stock is $27.25, indicating potential upside of more than 45%.

Barrick traded down 9.6%, at $7.95 in a 52-week range of $7.82 to $19.36. The low was set Monday morning. Barrick’s stock is down more than 80% in the past five years. The forward P/E ratio for 2016 is 10.51, and the price-to-book ratio for the trailing 12 months is 1.01. As of the most recent settlement date, short interest in the stock totaled 13.61 million shares, about 1.2% of the total float. The consensus price target is $13.46, implying potential upside of around 72%.

ALSO READ: Gold May Stay Down for a While

Randgold traded down about 3.4%, at $59.50 in a 52-week range of $58.00 to $89.18. The forward P/E ratio for 2016 is 18.73, and the price-to-book ratio for the trailing 12 months is 1.82. As of mid-June short interest in the stock totaled about 641,000 shares. The consensus price target on the stock is $92.72, implying a potential upside of more than 58%.

Agnico Eagle traded down about 7.7% to $23.22, in a 52-week range of $21.65 to $42.41. The forward P/E ratio for 2016 is 28.68, and the price-to-book for the trailing 12 months is 1.32. As of the end of June short interest in the stock totaled 2.27 million shares, about 1.1% of the total float. The consensus price target is $37.78, implying potential upside of nearly 63%.