Select Winners & Losers Expected in May Retail Sales Data

Where this report gets interesting is that the drug store sales are expected to be a drag and the sales outside of that component would be projected to rise by 3.6%.  There is a set up for a possible surprise here as well since analysts have taken a ‘careful approach’ due to the cautious outlook offered by retailers in their latest earnings reports.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) were highlighted with slight upticks in the estimates from Retail Metrics.  Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) is expected to post show its third negative monthly comparable sales out of the last four months and it is projected to be -0.8%.  The high-end mall retail outlets like Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) are expected to be on different ends: Nordstrom is expected to outpace all department stores by 200 basis points with a strong 5.2% rise on top of a difficult 7.4% increase last year. Saks faces a major 20% hurdle from last year and is now forecasted to post a tiny 0.1% gain.

Here are a few standout winners expected from Retail Metrics to show double-digit gains on same store sales:

• Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) is expected at 34.4%.
• Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) is expected at 21.8%
• Conn’s Inc. (NASDAQ: CONN) is expected at 14.7%.
• Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: FRAN) is expected at 12.9%.
• Select Comfort Corporation (NASDAQ: SCSS) is expected at 10.0%.

JON C. OGG