Retail Sales and PPI Show Deflationary Trend in October … What Inflation?

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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We have two different economic reading this morning for the market to chew over, effectively the first real readings this week. Retail sales and the Producer Price Index are out.

Producer Price Index for October was -0.2% on the headline report and also came in at -0.2% on the more focused core PPI reading, which takes out the volatility of food and energy. These readings from the Labor Department are handily lower from the gains seen in September. These are also under expectations: Bloomberg was calling for +0.2% on the headline PPI and on the core PPI; Dow Jones was looking for +0.2% on the headline PPI and +0.1% on the core PPI reading. It is important to note that energy prices were down by 0.5% in the month.

Retail sales were lower in October, partly due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The headline report showed a reading of -0.3%, and the ex-autos retail was unchanged, in this release from the Department of Commerce. This seasonally adjusted reading came to $411.59 billion. Dow Jones was looking for +0.2% on the headline report, while Bloomberg was calling for -0.1% on the headline data and +0.2% on the ex-autos basis.

With a lower PPI and with a subdued retail sales report from the same month (October), investors will say that this is support of the Federal Reserve actions because there is no inflation. Unfortunately, if it continues then the deflation camp will start to make more noise.

JON C. OGG

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.

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