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Alcoa

Alcoa (AA) Q2 2026 Earnings

Reported Jul 16, 2026 at 4:12 PM ET · SEC Source

Q2 26 EPS

$2.12

MISS 5.28%

Est. $2.24

Q2 26 Revenue

$3.97B

MISS 3.75%

Est. $4.12B

vs S&P Since Q2 26

-0.8%

TRAILING MARKET

AA +3.2% vs S&P +4.0%

Market Reaction

Did AA Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results

Alcoa Corp fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q2 2026, posting adjusted EPS of $2.12 against a consensus estimate of $2.24, a miss of 5.28%, while revenue of $3.97 billion trailed the $4.12 billion forecast by 3.75%, even as the top line surge… Read more Alcoa Corp fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q2 2026, posting adjusted EPS of $2.12 against a consensus estimate of $2.24, a miss of 5.28%, while revenue of $3.97 billion trailed the $4.12 billion forecast by 3.75%, even as the top line surged 31.4% year over year. The primary culprit was operational disruption at the Pinjarra alumina refinery, compounded by gas supply interruptions from Cyclone Narelle, which dragged alumina production down 6% sequentially to 2.22 million metric tons and prompted the company to lower its full-year alumina production guidance to 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons. Adjusted EBITDA still climbed sharply to $901 million from $595 million in the prior quarter, supported by higher aluminum shipments and realized prices. Alcoa also announced its agreement to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for roughly $4.10 billion upfront, a deal that drew mixed analyst reaction, with several firms trimming price targets on valuation concerns. For Q3, the company projects operational tax expense of $80 to $90 million and broadly neutral sequential EBITDA impacts across both business segments.

Key Takeaways

  • • Higher aluminum prices drove sequential revenue increase
  • • Increased aluminum shipments including higher value-add product sales
  • • Completion of San Ciprián smelter restart and continued progress on Alumar smelter restart
  • • Capacity restarts completed at Lista, Norway and Portland, Australia smelters
  • • Year-to-date production records set at four aluminum smelters and one alumina refinery

AA Forward Guidance & Outlook

Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production projection to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons (down 0.2–0.3 million metric tons from prior guidance) and alumina shipments to 11.5–11.6 million metric tons (down 0.3–0.4 million metric tons), primarily due to Pinjarra refinery disruptions from Cyclone Narelle. Aluminum production and shipment projections remain unchanged at 2.4–2.6 million and 2.6–2.8 million metric tons, respectively. For Q3 2026, the Alumina segment expects approximately $10 million in sequential favorable net impacts from Pinjarra recovery and lower energy prices, partially offset by planned maintenance in Brazil. The Aluminum segment expects efficiencies at higher production rates to offset higher carbon prices and lower energy sales, with Section 232 tariff costs expected to decrease by approximately $10 million sequentially, while alumina costs are expected to be unfavorable by approximately $10 million. Operational tax expense for Q3 is projected at $80–$90 million.

24/7 Wall St

AA YoY Financials

Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings

24/7 Wall St

AA Revenue by Segment

With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings

Q1 25 Q2 26

“During the second quarter, in addition to delivering strong financial results that captured favorable aluminum prices, our team executed on strategic initiatives, most notably the announced agreement with South32. We continue to demonstrate operational excellence and positive momentum in our disciplined approach to maximize value creation.”

— William F. Oplinger, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release

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