Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) Q4 2025 Earnings
How Did BAER Stock React to Q4 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −3.24%.
Did BAER Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
No. Bridger Aerospace Group reported Q4 2025 earnings of $-0.40 a share on Mar 5, 2026, missing the $-0.30 consensus estimate by 33.3%. Revenue was $8.5M against a $6.5M estimate.
Bridger Aerospace Group delivered a tale of two timeframes in its Q4 2025 results, with a strong full-year performance overshadowed by a sharply disappointing final quarter. The aerial firefighting company posted Q4 revenue of $8.55 million, missing the $13.50 million consensus estimate by 36.69% and falling 45.4% from the year-ago period, while EPS came in at $-0.40, missing the $-0.26 consensus by 53.85%. The primary culprit was the timing of Super Scooper deployments and lower return-to-service revenue from the MAB partnership, factors that compressed quarterly results even as the full-year picture told a markedly different story. For all of 2025, revenue grew 25% to $122.83 million and the company achieved its first-ever positive net income of $4.14 million, reversing a $15.57 million loss in 2024. Looking ahead, management initiated 2026 guidance projecting revenue of $135 million to $145 million with Adjusted EBITDA of $55 million to $60 million, supported by fleet expansion and a recently secured five-year federal contract in Alaska adding further contract depth to the business.
- Increased activity for Super Scoopers and surveillance aircraft in 2025
- Growing customer emphasis on early detection driving increased prepositioning and enhanced fleet utilization
- Longer-term contracts providing revenue stability
- Growing diversification of revenue stream
- Revenue from return-to-service work on Spanish Super Scoopers under MAB partnership ($14.0 million in FY 2025)
- Record performance achieved despite statistically below-average wildfire year
“Our record financial performance in 2025, during a statistically below-average fire year, underscores the strength of our business model, growing diversification of our revenue stream and the benefits of longer-term contacts for our aircraft.”
Bridger Aerospace Group CEO, on the earnings call
What Was Bridger Aerospace Group's Outlook in Q4 2025?
Bridger initiated 2026 guidance with revenue expected between $135 million and $145 million, representing 14% growth at the midpoint of the range and 29% growth when excluding non-recurring return-to-service work on the Spanish Scoopers in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $55 million to $60 million, representing growth of 27% at the midpoint. The outlook reflects the addition of four air surveillance aircraft and the first two Spanish Scoopers to the fleet.
BAER YoY Financials
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.5M | $15.6M | −45.4% |
| Net Income | −$15.1M | −$14.8M | +2.5% |
BAER Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.