Cameco Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −2.98%.
Did CCJ Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Cameco fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q4 2025, posting earnings per share of $0.36 against a consensus estimate of $0.44, a miss of 19.02%, while revenue of $861.36 million trailed the $1.10 billion consensus by 21.59%, despite edging up 1.5% year-over-year. The primary culprit was a 12% decline in uranium sales volume to 11.2 million pounds, as production at McArthur River was hampered by delays in accessing new mining zones and equipment availability issues, triggering a six-week unplanned Key Lake mill shutdown. Beneath the quarterly stumble, however, full-year net earnings attributable to equity holders climbed to $423.15 million from $123.36 million in 2024, and Westinghouse delivered a standout performance, with Cameco's 49% share generating adjusted EBITDA of $559.42 million, a 61% increase. Looking ahead, Cameco guided 2026 consolidated revenue of $3.13 to $3.37 billion, with uranium's average realized price expected to reach $85 to $89 per pound, and institutional investors have continued building positions, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term nuclear fuel thesis.
- Higher uranium realized prices — average US$65.53/lb in Q4, up 12% year-over-year; full year US$62.11/lb, up 6%
- Improved fuel services pricing from contracts entered in stronger price environment — Q4 average realized price C$39.39/kgU, up 11%; full year C$43.04/kgU, up 14%
- Westinghouse outperformance including Dukovany project contribution of approximately US$170 million to Cameco's share of Q2 revenue
- Cash distributions from Westinghouse totaling US$220.5 million during 2025
- Uranium production of 21.0 million pounds exceeding revised guidance of up to 20 million pounds
- Port Hope conversion facility UF6 production record of 11.2 million kgU
- Gains on derivatives of $95 million versus losses of $183 million in 2024 due to stronger Canadian dollar
- Operating cash flow increased 56% to $1,408 million from $905 million in 2024
- Cigar Lake production of 19.1 million pounds (100% basis) exceeded forecast of 18 million pounds due to higher productivity
- Weakening Canadian dollar positively impacted US dollar-priced contracts
“Our fourth quarter and year-end results reflect another year of disciplined execution across our uranium, fuel services, and Westinghouse segments, demonstrating the strength of our strategy in a market that continues to evolve in support of long-term value creation. We delivered solid performance with strong contributions from our core assets and improved financial results tied to our disciplined long-term supply strategy in a constructive demand environment.”
Cameco CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, Cameco expects consolidated revenue of $3,130-$3,370 million, with uranium segment revenue of $2,540-$2,730 million and fuel services revenue of $590-$630 million. Uranium production is targeted at 19.5-21.5 million pounds (owned and operated properties), with committed sales of 29-32 million pounds. The uranium average realized price is expected at $85-$89/lb, with average unit cost of sales of $61.50-$65.00/lb. Fuel services production is expected at 13-14 million kgU. For Westinghouse (Cameco's 49% share), 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook is US$370-430 million, with core business margins expected at 16-19%. Comparable Dukovany distributions are not expected in 2026, though an early 2026 distribution of US$49 million was received. The strategic partnership with the US Government is expected to accelerate deployment of Westinghouse AP1000 reactors with at least US$80 billion in aggregate investment. Capital expenditures for 2026 are planned at $490-$540 million, significantly higher than 2025 due to aging infrastructure investments and positioning for future production flexibility. The company has eliminated its five-year Westinghouse growth outlook due to potential variability in new build project timing. Care and maintenance costs are expected at $62-$67 million. Direct administration costs are expected at $245-$260 million. Exploration expenses are expected at $30-$35 million and R&D at $50-$55 million. At McArthur River, zone 1 production is expected to begin in 2026, and Key Lake will undergo an extended annual maintenance shutdown in Q3 2026 for new infrastructure installation and major repairs. JV Inkai's 2026 planned production target is 10.4 million pounds (100% basis), with Cameco's purchase entitlement expected at 4.2 million pounds. The collective agreement with United Steelworkers Local 8914 expired in December 2025 and negotiations for a new agreement are ongoing.
CCJ YoY Financials
CCJ Revenue by Segment
CCJ Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.