ConocoPhillips (COP) Q4 2025 Earnings
How Did COP Stock React to Q4 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.06%.
Did COP Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
No. ConocoPhillips reported Q4 2025 earnings of $1.02 a share on Feb 5, 2026, missing the $1.10 consensus estimate by 7.1%. Revenue was $14.2B against a $12.8B estimate.
ConocoPhillips delivered a softer-than-expected fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share falling short of the $1.09 consensus estimate by 6.42%, as a 19% drop in average realized prices to $42.46 per BOE from $52.37 a year earlier weighed heavily on results. Revenue came in at $14.19 billion, essentially flat with estimates but down 0.4% year-over-year, underscoring the toll that weaker commodity prices took on the top line even as production climbed to 2,320 MBOED in the quarter. The price headwind overshadowed meaningful operational progress — particularly the completed Marathon Oil integration, which has already generated more than $1 billion in run-rate synergies, a development that has drawn <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/05/why-smart-money-is-piling-into-cop-after-earnings-miss-the-marathon-deal-just-changed-everything/">renewed investor attention</a> despite the headline miss. Looking ahead, ConocoPhillips guided 2026 production at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED alongside a targeted $1 billion reduction in capital and costs, while committing to return 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders and projecting $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029.
- Lower realized commodity prices (average $42.46/BOE in Q4, down 19% YoY)
- Higher production volumes (2,320 MBOED in Q4, up 137 MBOED YoY)
- Marathon Oil integration synergies exceeding $1 billion on run-rate basis
- Lower 48 drilling and completion efficiency improvements of more than 15% YoY
- Full-year 2.5% underlying production growth
“ConocoPhillips delivered another year of strong performance in 2025, achieving our CFO-based return of capital target and growing our base dividend at a top-quartile S&P 500 rate, in line with our returns-focused value proposition. We outperformed our initial production, capital and cost guidance; successfully integrated Marathon Oil, doubling our synergy capture; and made strong progress on our incremental cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts.”
ConocoPhillips CEO, on the earnings call
What Was ConocoPhillips's Outlook in Q4 2025?
ConocoPhillips guided 2026 capital expenditures at approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion. Full-year 2026 production is expected at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED, with Q1 2026 production of 2.30 to 2.34 MMBOED inclusive of weather-related downtime. DD&A is expected at $11.7 to $11.9 billion and adjusted corporate and other segment net loss at approximately $0.9 billion. The company targets a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs in 2026 and plans to return 45% of CFO to shareholders. Management expects $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028. NFE startup is expected in the second half of 2026. The company is on track to meet its $5 billion total disposition target by year-end 2026 and achieve incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements of more than $1 billion on a run-rate basis by year-end 2026.
COP YoY Financials
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.2B | $14.2B | −0.4% |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $2.3B | −37.3% |
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.