Conoco Phillips
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.06%.
Did COP Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
ConocoPhillips delivered a softer-than-expected fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share falling short of the $1.09 consensus estimate by 6.42%, as a 19% drop in average realized prices to $42.46 per BOE from $52.37 a year earlier weighed heavily on results. Revenue came in at $14.19 billion, essentially flat with estimates but down 0.4% year-over-year, underscoring the toll that weaker commodity prices took on the top line even as production climbed to 2,320 MBOED in the quarter. The price headwind overshadowed meaningful operational progress — particularly the completed Marathon Oil integration, which has already generated more than $1 billion in run-rate synergies, a development that has drawn <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/05/why-smart-money-is-piling-into-cop-after-earnings-miss-the-marathon-deal-just-changed-everything/">renewed investor attention</a> despite the headline miss. Looking ahead, ConocoPhillips guided 2026 production at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED alongside a targeted $1 billion reduction in capital and costs, while committing to return 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders and projecting $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029.
- Lower realized commodity prices (average $42.46/BOE in Q4, down 19% YoY)
- Higher production volumes (2,320 MBOED in Q4, up 137 MBOED YoY)
- Marathon Oil integration synergies exceeding $1 billion on run-rate basis
- Lower 48 drilling and completion efficiency improvements of more than 15% YoY
- Full-year 2.5% underlying production growth
“ConocoPhillips delivered another year of strong performance in 2025, achieving our CFO-based return of capital target and growing our base dividend at a top-quartile S&P 500 rate, in line with our returns-focused value proposition. We outperformed our initial production, capital and cost guidance; successfully integrated Marathon Oil, doubling our synergy capture; and made strong progress on our incremental cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts.”
ConocoPhillips CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
ConocoPhillips guided 2026 capital expenditures at approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion. Full-year 2026 production is expected at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED, with Q1 2026 production of 2.30 to 2.34 MMBOED inclusive of weather-related downtime. DD&A is expected at $11.7 to $11.9 billion and adjusted corporate and other segment net loss at approximately $0.9 billion. The company targets a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs in 2026 and plans to return 45% of CFO to shareholders. Management expects $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028. NFE startup is expected in the second half of 2026. The company is on track to meet its $5 billion total disposition target by year-end 2026 and achieve incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements of more than $1 billion on a run-rate basis by year-end 2026.
COP YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.