Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q3 2026 Earnings
GAAP net income includes an income tax benefit of $433 thousand (vs. a $13,746 thousand benefit in Q3 2025); cost of sales benefited from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (amount not disclosed). No adjusted EPS disclosed.
How Did HCC Stock React to Q3 2026 Earnings?
Did HCC Beat Earnings? Q3 2026 Results
No. Warrior Met Coal reported Q3 2026 earnings of $0.93 a share on Nov 4, 2026, missing the $1.45 consensus estimate by 36.0%. Revenue was $507.9M against a $507.2M estimate.
Warrior Met Coal delivered a sharply mixed third quarter of 2026, posting GAAP earnings of $0.93 per share and missing the $1.45 consensus estimate by 35.97%, even as revenue of $507.93 million edged fractionally above the $507.19 consensus and surged 54.9% year over year. The headline EPS figure reflects GAAP results that include a modest income tax benefit of $433 thousand, far smaller than the $13.75 million benefit recorded a year ago, and a partial cost offset from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit. The revenue strength was driven by Blue Creek, whose ramp-up lifted coal sales volumes 48% to 3.5 million short tons and pushed the average net selling price up 6% to $144 per ton, though higher Pacific freight costs and a shift toward lower-margin High-Vol A coal weighed on margins and contributed to the earnings shortfall. Free cash flow swung to $138.89 million from negative territory a year ago, funding a $2.00 per-share special dividend alongside the regular $0.08 quarterly payout. Warrior reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, targeting coal sales of 13.0 to 14.0 million short tons at cash costs of $95 to $105 per ton.
- Sales volumes up 48% to 3.5 million short tons and production up 36% to 3.1 million short tons, driven by the Blue Creek mine
- Average net selling price up 6% to $143.56 per ton on improved PLV and High-Vol A coal prices
- Adjusted EBITDA up 76% to $124.0 million; Adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.4% vs 21.5%
- Capital expenditures fell to $27.1 million from $124.2 million after Blue Creek construction was completed
- Net working capital (excluding cash) decreased $33.7 million from Q2 on monetization of surplus High-Vol A inventories
- Cash cost of sales per ton rose 4% to $104.98 due to price-linked transportation and royalties, lower Mine No. 7 volumes and inflation, partly offset by lower-cost Blue Creek tons and the Section 45X tax credit
- Gross price realization declined to about 66% from 83% on a 25% higher High-Vol A sales mix sold into the Pacific Basin
“We delivered strong sales volumes in the third quarter as Blue Creek continued to expand our production base and strengthen our cash-generating capacity. Higher volumes and improved pricing generated significant free cash flow and further strengthened our balance sheet, in line with our priorities for the next phase of our growth strategy.”
Warrior Met Coal CEO, on the earnings call
What Is Warrior Met Coal's Outlook?
Warrior reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance as updated last quarter: - Coal sales: 13.0–14.0 million short tons - Coal production: 12.5–13.5 million short tons - Cash cost of sales (FOB port): $95–$105 per short ton - Sustaining capex: $105–$115 million - Blue Creek capex: $50–$75 million - Depreciation and depletion: $225–$250 million - SG&A: $75–$85 million - Interest expense: $20–$25 million - Interest income: $3–$8 million Key factors that may affect the outlook include one remaining longwall move in Q4, HCC index pricing, geography of sales and freight rates, global trade and tariff policies, exclusion of other non-recurring costs, a new labor contract, and inflationary pressures.
HCC YoY Financials
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $507.9M | $327.9M | +54.9% |
| Operating Income | $50.8M | $20.0M | +153.8% |
| Net Income | $49.3M | $36.6M | +34.7% |
HCC Revenue by Segment
When Does Warrior Met Coal Report Next?
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.