Q2 26 EPS GAAP
$1.65
BEAT +13.08%
Est. $1.46
SG&A includes a $2.4 million gain related to recoveries from Walter Energy bankruptcy proceedings; effective tax rate was approximately 4.1% ($3.7 million tax on $91.1 million pre-tax income), significantly below statutory rates
Q2 26 Revenue
$509.7M
BEAT +4.23%
Est. $489.0M
vs S&P Since Q2 26
+18.2%
BEATING MARKET
HCC +18.7% vs S&P +0.5%
Market Reaction
Did HCC Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
Warrior Met Coal posted a blowout second quarter in 2026, with the Blue Creek mine's full ramp-up driving record sales volumes and a dramatic earnings beat that caught Wall Street off guard. The company reported GAAP EPS of $1.65, beating the $1.46 c… Read more Warrior Met Coal posted a blowout second quarter in 2026, with the Blue Creek mine's full ramp-up driving record sales volumes and a dramatic earnings beat that caught Wall Street off guard. The company reported GAAP EPS of $1.65, beating the $1.46 consensus by 13.08%, on revenue of $509.69 million that topped estimates by 4.23% and surged 71.3% from the year-ago period. The quarter's results included a $2.4 million SG&A gain tied to Walter Energy bankruptcy recoveries and a notably low effective tax rate of roughly 4.1% on pre-tax income of $91.14 million. The single most compelling driver was a 65% year-over-year jump in sales volumes to a record 3.7 million short tons, paired with a 9% decline in cash cost per ton to $92.53, as Blue Creek's lower-cost structure delivered the margin expansion management had long promised. Free cash flow swung to $103.35 million from negative $56.70 million a year ago. Buoyed by the strong operational momentum and positive customer reception for Blue Creek coal, Warrior raised its full-year sales volume guidance to 13.0 to 14.0 million short tons, with analysts at Jefferies maintaining a Buy rating and $110 price target on the stock.
Key Takeaways
- • Blue Creek mine ramp-up driving record sales volumes, lower unit costs, and margin expansion
- • 65% increase in sales volumes to record 3.7 million short tons
- • 45% increase in production volumes to 3.3 million short tons
- • Cash cost of sales per short ton decreased 9% to $92.53 driven by Blue Creek's lower cost structure and 45X Credit
- • 6% increase in average net selling price to $137.82 per short ton
- • Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 30.8% from 18.0% year-over-year
- • Capital expenditures declined significantly as Blue Creek construction phase completed
- • Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit benefit
HCC Forward Guidance & Outlook
Warrior raised full-year 2026 volume guidance by 0.5 million short tons, reflecting continued positive customer reception of Blue Creek product. Updated guidance: coal sales of 13.0-14.0 million short tons; coal production of 12.5-13.5 million short tons; cash cost of sales (FOB port) of $95-$105 per short ton; capital expenditures for sustaining mines of $105-$115 million; Blue Creek project capex of $50-$75 million; depreciation and depletion of $225-$250 million; SG&A of $75-$85 million; interest expense of $20-$25 million; interest income of $3-$8 million. Key factors include one longwall move completed in Q2, three planned longwall moves before year-end (two in Q3, one in Q4), HCC index pricing, geography of sales and freight rates, global trade and tariff policies, new labor contract, and inflationary pressures.
HCC YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
HCC Revenue by Segment
Business unit performance breakdown
“We delivered record sales volumes, improved pricing and a lower-cost profile in the second quarter, driving significant margin expansion and generating more than $103 million of free cash flow. Blue Creek continues to be an important contributor to our performance, adding incremental earnings and cash flow as customers respond positively to our offering.”
— Walt Scheller, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
HCC Earnings Trends
HCC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
HCC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
HCC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
HCC Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT SG&A includes a $2.4 million gain related to recoveries from Walter Energy bankruptcy proceedings; effective tax rate was approximately 4.1% ($3.7 million tax on $91.1 million pre-tax income), significantly below statutory rates | $1.46 | $1.65 | +13.08% | $509.7M | +4.23% |
| Q1 26 MISS | $1.42 | $1.37 | -3.70% | $458.6M | -1.01% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.59 | $0.44 | -25.17% | $384.0M | +0.25% |
| FY Full Year | — | $1.08 | — | $1.31B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.51 | $0.70 | +236.29% | $328.6M | +9.54% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $-0.36 | $0.11 | +130.34% | $297.5M | +4.16% |