LyondellBasell Industries NV - Class A
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.99%.
Did LYB Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
LyondellBasell Industries delivered a painful fourth-quarter miss to close out a turbulent 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $-0.26 against a $0.20 consensus estimate — a 230% shortfall — on revenue of $7.09 billion. The primary culprit was O&P-Americas, where surging NGL feedstock and natural gas costs collided with weaker ethylene and propylene prices and reduced polyethylene volumes, carving out a $332 million year-over-year decline in adjusted segment EBITDA. On a GAAP basis, full-year results were grimmer still, with a $738 million net loss weighed down by $1.25 billion in non-cash asset write-downs. One bright spot was the company's Cash Improvement Plan, which delivered $800 million in 2025 against a $600 million target, prompting management to raise the cumulative goal to $1.30 billion by year-end 2026. Analysts have flagged dividend sustainability as a growing concern given the market environment. Looking into Q1 2026, LyondellBasell sees support for North American polyethylene from tight inventories and winter storm-related supply disruptions, while capital expenditures are set to fall sharply to $1.20 billion as the company streamlines its portfolio ahead of four planned European asset divestitures.
- Cash Improvement Plan delivered $800 million in 2025, exceeding the $600 million target
- Higher NGL feedstock and natural gas costs compressed Q4 margins
- Seasonally lower demand restrained product prices in Q4
- Record safety performance achieved in 2025
- APS segment delivered meaningful gains through margin improvement, portfolio optimization, and increased business win rates
- European polymer margins declined due to import competition
- North American polyethylene chain margins fell due to trade issues, higher feedstock costs and a well-supplied market
- New octane capacity pressured oxyfuels margins through most of the summer
“During 2025 LyondellBasell continued to navigate the cycle while maintaining focus on our long-term strategy. Despite challenging markets, our Cash Improvement Plan achieved $800 million in 2025, well-above our $600 million target relative to our 2025 plan. With this momentum, we are increasing our cumulative target from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026 and expect to generate an additional $500 million of cash relative to 2025 actuals. Diligent work by our team allowed the company to close the year with $3.4 billion of cash and cash equivalents. We made significant progress in optimizing the LYB business portfolio and our ongoing commitment to operational excellence was reflected in record safety performance. These actions have positioned LyondellBasell to capture significant value once markets recover.”
LyondellBasell Industries CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Entering Q1 2026, the company faces continued volatility in feedstock and energy prices. In North America, tight year-end inventories, reduced supply from winter storm Fern, and stronger seasonal demand support polyethylene price increases. In Europe, typical seasonal trends should improve demand as the quarter unfolds. Oxyfuel profitability is expected to normalize with typical seasonal margin improvements toward end of Q1. LYB plans to operate O&P-Americas assets at approximately 85%, O&P-EAI at approximately 75%, and I&D at approximately 85%. The company has increased its Cash Improvement Plan target to $1.3 billion cumulative by year-end 2026 (up from $1.1 billion), expecting an additional $500 million of cash. Capital expenditures are planned at $1.2 billion for 2026 focused on safe operations and MoReTec-1 construction. Divestment of four European assets is on track for completion in Q2 2026.
LYB YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.