Molina Healthcare Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −2.07%.
Did MOH Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Molina Healthcare delivered a deeply disappointing fourth quarter of 2025, posting an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share against a consensus estimate of $0.50, a miss of nearly 650% that sent shares tumbling more than 28% in the aftermath. Revenue of $11.38 billion rose 8.3% year over year and edged past estimates by 4.18%, but the top-line beat offered little comfort given the severity of the earnings shortfall. The primary culprit was a toxic combination of roughly $2.00 per share in unfavorable retroactive Medicaid premium adjustments in California and surging medical costs across Medicare and Marketplace segments, driving the consolidated medical care ratio to 94.6% from 90.2% a year earlier. Goldman Sachs and UBS both trimmed their price targets following the results, reflecting broader skepticism about managed care margins. Looking ahead, management guided for 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 on total revenue of approximately $44.50 billion, characterizing the year as a trough for Medicaid margins while pointing to embedded new-store earnings exceeding $11.00 per share expected to materialize between 2027 and 2029.
- Premium revenue growth of 11% year over year driven by acquisitions, rate increases, and organic growth
- Q4 results burdened by approximately $2.00 per share of unfavorable retroactive premium adjustments in California Medicaid
- Consolidated MCR deteriorated to 94.6% in Q4 from 90.2% in prior year quarter
- Marketplace MCR surged to 99.0% in Q4 due to higher utilization relative to risk adjustment revenue
- Medicare MCR reached 97.5% in Q4 reflecting higher utilization among high-acuity members
- G&A ratio discipline maintained at 6.5% adjusted for full year
“We remain confident in our durable and sustaining operating platform.”
Molina Healthcare CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For full year 2026, Molina expects premium revenue of approximately $42.2 billion, total revenue of approximately $44.5 billion, GAAP EPS of at least $3.20, and adjusted EPS of at least $5.00. The adjusted earnings guidance is burdened by $2.50 per share: $1.50 from implementation of the new Florida CMS Medicaid contract and $1.00 from underperformance in the traditional MAPD product. The company will exit the MAPD product for 2027 to focus exclusively on its $5 billion dual eligible Medicare business. Consolidated MCR is expected at 92.6% (Medicaid 92.9%, Medicare 94.0%, Marketplace 85.5%). New store embedded earnings exceed $11.00 per diluted share, reflecting incremental earnings expected between 2027 and 2029 from newly awarded contracts and recent acquisitions.
MOH YoY Financials
MOH Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.