Q2 26 EPS
$1.51
BEAT +7.76%
Est. $1.40
Q2 26 Revenue
$10.87B
BEAT +0.86%
Est. $10.78B
vs S&P Since Q2 26
-18.5%
TRAILING MARKET
MOH -13.8% vs S&P +4.7%
Market Reaction
Did MOH Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
Molina Healthcare posted a better-than-expected second quarter despite a sharp year-over-year earnings contraction, with adjusted EPS of $1.51 beating the $1.40 consensus estimate by 7.76% even as the broader business absorbed significant margin pres… Read more Molina Healthcare posted a better-than-expected second quarter despite a sharp year-over-year earnings contraction, with adjusted EPS of $1.51 beating the $1.40 consensus estimate by 7.76% even as the broader business absorbed significant margin pressure. Revenue of $10.87 billion edged past expectations by 0.86% but fell 4.8% from a year ago, weighed down by membership losses across all three segments, with total enrollment declining to roughly 4.9 million from 5.7 million a year earlier. The core story of the quarter was margin deterioration, as the consolidated medical care ratio widened to 92.2% from 90.4%, reflecting the sustained imbalance between Medicaid reimbursement rates and rising medical costs that has pressured the company throughout the year. GAAP net income tumbled 76% year over year to $60.00 million, partly burdened by a $93.00 million impairment charge tied to Molina's decision to exit traditional Medicare Advantage for 2027. Looking ahead, management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 per diluted share and characterized 2026 as the trough year for Medicaid margins, signaling expectations for a recovery as rate updates take hold.
Key Takeaways
- • Medicaid MCR of 92.7% in line with expectations reflecting rate updates and stable medical cost trend
- • Medicare MCR of 90.7% better than expectations due to lower medical cost trend and 2026 pricing
- • Marketplace MCR of 88.9% higher than expectations due to prior year risk adjustment and unfavorable member acuity mix
- • Lower premium revenue due to membership declines partially offset by rate updates
- • G&A ratio discipline at 6.7% GAAP and 6.5% adjusted
- • Operating cash flow improvement to $788 million for H1 2026 from $(112) million in H1 2025 driven by timing of government receivables and payables
MOH Forward Guidance & Outlook
Molina maintained full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance at approximately $42 billion and raised adjusted EPS guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 per diluted share. Full-year GAAP EPS guidance was raised to at least $2.15 per diluted share. A $1.50 per share improvement in Medicare was offset by a $1.50 per share reduction in Marketplace; excluding the Marketplace revision, guidance would have been $6.75 per share. Guidance includes an anticipated $1.50 per share loss from the new Florida Medicaid contract implementation in Q4 2026 and a $1.00 per share loss from the traditional MAPD product being exited. Management views 2026 as the trough year for Medicaid pretax margins and expects the imbalance between Medicaid rates and medical cost trends to be corrected with future rate increases, positioning the company for profitable growth in 2027.
MOH YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
MOH Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our second quarter results and full year guidance reflect solid performance in our Medicaid and Medicare segments. The imbalance between Medicaid rates and medical cost trend appears to have stabilized and is well positioned to be corrected with future rate increases. This reinforces our belief that 2026 is the trough year for Medicaid pretax margins. We remain confident in our disciplined approach to medical cost management and believe the premium and EPS building blocks position us well for profitable growth in 2027.”
— Joseph Zubretsky, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
MOH Earnings Trends
MOH vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
MOH EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
MOH Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
MOH Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT | $1.40 | $1.51 | +7.76% | $10.87B | +0.86% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $1.94 | $2.35 | +21.40% | $10.80B | -0.83% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.33 | $-2.75 | -921.63% | $11.38B | +4.31% |
| FY Full Year | $13.93 | $11.03 | -20.80% | $45.43B | +1.02% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $3.89 | $1.84 | -52.73% | $11.48B | +4.49% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $5.53 | $5.48 | -0.93% | $11.43B | +4.44% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $5.96 | $6.08 | +2.05% | $11.15B | +3.08% |