Murphy Oil Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.98%.
Did MUR Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Murphy Oil delivered a sharply better-than-expected bottom line in Q4 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $0.14 against a consensus estimate of -$0.03, a beat of 566.67%, even as revenue of $624.56 million came in 3.69% below the $648.47 million estimate and fell 6.7% year-over-year. The primary driver of the revenue shortfall was softer commodity pricing, with realized oil at $59.21 per barrel, down $6.97 from Q3, though production of 181,400 BOEPD exceeded the midpoint of quarterly guidance and full-year output averaged 182,300 BOEPD at the high end of targets. A standout strategic development was the successful appraisal of Hai Su Vang in offshore Vietnam, where drill stem tests showed approximately 12,000 BOPD in combined flow rates, lifting recoverable resource estimates toward the top of the prior 170-430 MMBOE range. Looking ahead, Murphy guided 2026 production at 167,000-175,000 BOEPD, a step down from 2025 levels due largely to reduced Tupper Montney volumes, prompting at least one analyst to trim their price target on the softer outlook.
- Production of 181,400 BOEPD exceeded quarterly guidance midpoint
- Full year production of 182,300 BOEPD at high end of annual guidance range
- 20% reduction in lease operating expense per BOE year-over-year to $10.89
- 7% year-over-year reduction in Eagle Ford Shale drilling costs
- Record-setting well performance in onshore Eagle Ford program at Karnes and Catarina
- Highest-performing EFS wells in Company history per 1,000 feet of completed lateral length
- Longest laterals drilled in Company history at both Tupper Montney and Kaybob Duvernay
- Softer global oil price environment reduced realized oil prices to $59.21 per barrel in Q4
- Natural gas realized prices increased 56% quarter-over-quarter to $2.34 per MCF
“Throughout 2025 we stayed true to our strategy — allocate capital with discipline, execute our core plan, and pursue selective, high impact exploration. We delivered record-setting well performance in our onshore program, advanced our exploration agenda, and strengthened our liquidity and debt maturity profile. Our Hai Su Vang discovery and appraisal success, along with our broader Vietnam portfolio, position us for material new growth over the coming decade. Our accomplishments in 2025 have provided a robust foundation for continued progress in 2026, positioning us to deliver sustainable value through all market cycles.”
Murphy Oil CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, Murphy guides total net production of 167,000–175,000 BOEPD (excluding NCI), down from 182,300 BOEPD in 2025, primarily due to lower Tupper Montney natural gas volumes from well timing and higher royalty rates driven by anticipated AECO price strength. Capital expenditures are guided at $1.2–$1.3 billion, consistent with 2025 spending. Approximately 75% of 2026 capital is allocated to development, with the remainder directed to exploration drilling, appraisal, seismic, and corporate CAPEX. Q1 2026 production guidance is 164,000–172,000 BOEPD with Q1 CAPEX of $500–$580 million. Key catalysts include the Chinook #8 development well and Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) first oil, both expected in H2 2026. Two additional Hai Su Vang appraisal wells are planned for 2026, along with continued Côte d'Ivoire exploration. Eagle Ford Shale CAPEX is guided down 25% year-over-year while maintaining production at 2025 levels through efficiency gains. The company expects operating expenses in the $10–$12 per BOE range. Murphy's Vietnam business is expected to produce 30–50 net MBOEPD in the early 2030s.
MUR YoY Financials
MUR Revenue by Segment
MUR Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.