Q1 26 EPS
$1.49
MISS 17.68%
Est. $1.81
Q1 26 Revenue
$10.26B
BEAT +18.71%
Est. $8.64B
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-26.2%
TRAILING MARKET
NRG -20.4% vs S&P +5.8%
Market Reaction
Did NRG Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
NRG Energy delivered a mixed first quarter for 2026, posting revenue of $10.26 billion that topped the $8.64 billion consensus by 18.71% and grew 19.5% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS of $1.49 fell short of the $1.73 analyst estimate by 14.04%, se… Read more NRG Energy delivered a mixed first quarter for 2026, posting revenue of $10.26 billion that topped the $8.64 billion consensus by 18.71% and grew 19.5% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS of $1.49 fell short of the $1.73 analyst estimate by 14.04%, sending shares lower by roughly 7.5% in the session following results. The primary culprit behind the earnings shortfall was a sharp swing in unrealized, non-cash losses from mark-to-market economic hedges, as declining natural gas prices reversed gains that had boosted the year-ago period, compressing GAAP net income to $125 million from $750 million in Q1 2025. Higher interest expense tied to the LS Power generation assets acquisition, which nearly doubled total assets to $40.05 billion, added further pressure on per-share results. Despite the stumble, management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, including adjusted EBITDA of $5.33 billion to $5.83 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.90 to $9.90, signaling confidence that accounting-driven volatility will not impair the company's expected economics at settlement.
Key Takeaways
- • Mild winter weather in Texas with ~30% decrease in heating degree days reduced retail load
- • Unrealized non-cash mark-to-market losses on economic hedges due to declining natural gas prices
- • Higher power supply costs in East during Winter Storm Fern
- • Strong Vivint Smart Home growth in customer count and monthly recurring service margin per customer
- • Lower power supply costs in West/Other segment
- • Increased interest expense and depreciation from LS Power acquisition
- • 94% ERCOT fleet in-the-money availability during Winter Storm Fern
NRG YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
NRG Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our team executed well this quarter. The fleet performed, and our retail and commercial businesses delivered affordable, reliable power to the customers and communities that count on us. Demand for our product continues to grow, and NRG has the platform, the people and the assets to capitalize on the opportunity ahead. We have momentum across the business and are well-positioned heading into summer. I am grateful to Larry for his leadership, proud of this team and focused on deploying capital with discipline to create durable, long-term value.”
— Robert Gaudette, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
NRG Earnings Trends
NRG vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
NRG EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
NRG Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
NRG Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 MISS | $1.74 | $1.49 | -14.37% | $7.48B | -3.91% |
| Q1 26 MISS | $1.81 | $1.49 | -17.68% | $10.26B | +18.71% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.02 | $1.04 | +1.96% | $7.76B | +16.88% |
| FY Full Year | — | $8.24 | — | $30.71B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $2.13 | $2.78 | +30.52% | $7.64B | +2.41% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $1.65 | $1.73 | +4.85% | $6.74B | +4.46% |