Nucor Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.37%.
Did NUE Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Nucor closed out the fourth quarter of 2025 with a notable earnings miss, posting adjusted EPS of $1.73 against a consensus estimate of $2.14, a shortfall of 19.16%, while revenue of $7.69 billion fell just short of the $7.80 billion analysts had expected, though it still represented an 8.6% gain year-over-year. The primary culprit was broad-based sequential weakness across all three operating segments, with steel mill shipments dropping 8% from Q3 to 5,906 thousand tons amid margin compression in sheet products, compounded by two scheduled outages at direct reduced iron facilities and impairment charges tied to the closure or repurposing of certain steel products facilities. Despite the quarterly stumble, management struck an optimistic tone heading into 2026, pointing to backlogs roughly 40% higher year-over-year, steel import market share that has fallen sharply to around 14%, and robust demand from data centers, energy infrastructure, and manufacturing construction. With capital expenditures projected to decline by approximately $900 million to $2.50 billion in 2026, Nucor expects improved free cash flow as recently completed growth projects begin contributing in earnest.
- Steel mills segment margin compression primarily in sheet with lower volumes
- Steel products segment impacted by lower volumes and higher average costs per ton
- Raw materials segment affected by two scheduled DRI facility outages partially offset by insurance recoveries
- Full-year net sales up 6% year-over-year driven by higher shipment volumes
- Steel mill utilization at 82% in Q4 2025 vs 85% in Q3 2025
- External average sales price per ton of $1,242 in Q4 vs $1,258 in Q3
“I want to thank our teammates for their tremendous work throughout 2025—delivering for our customers, advancing key growth projects, and making this Nucor's safest year. During the year, we brought several major projects online, including our new rebar micro-mill in Lexington, North Carolina, the Kingman, Arizona melt shop, our Alabama Towers and Structures facility, and our coating complex in Crawfordsville, Indiana. As these and other recently completed projects ramp up, they are beginning to deliver meaningful earnings contributions and we believe they will play an important role in strengthening our earnings power over time.”
Nucor CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Nucor expects earnings to increase in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, with improvement across all three operating segments. The largest increase is expected in the steel mills segment due to higher volumes and higher realized prices across all major product categories. The steel products segment is expected to see improved earnings from increased volumes on stable pricing. The raw materials segment is also expected to have increased earnings. For full-year 2026, Nucor sees a constructive outlook supported by modest GDP growth (~2.3%), balanced end markets in steel demand (data centers, CHIPS plants, energy, infrastructure, border fence, warehouses, automotive), lower imports due to full-year impact of Section 232 tariffs and trade case rulings, historically strong backlogs (~40% higher year-over-year, ~10% higher quarter-over-quarter at end of Q4), and Nucor mill shipments expected up approximately 5% versus 2025. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at approximately $2.5 billion, roughly $900 million lower than 2025. The company expects lower capex, improved market conditions, and contributions from recently completed growth projects to drive higher free cash flow in 2026 versus 2025.
NUE YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.