P3 Health Partners Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +12.22%.
Did PIII Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
P3 Health Partners delivered a deeply conflicted set of Q4 2025 results, posting revenue of $384.81 million, a 7.60% beat against the $357.65 million consensus and a 3.8% gain year-over-year, while its loss per share of $23.02 missed the $9.46 consensus estimate by a staggering 143.21%. The central culprit was a severe deterioration in medical margin, which swung to negative $28.70 million from positive $7.28 million a year earlier, as claims expense of $394.88 million overwhelmed capitated revenue and premium deficiency reserves of $55.41 million compounded the damage. The quarterly net loss widened to $165.71 million, leaving total stockholders' equity deeply negative at $155.23 million and cash at just $25.01 million, raising ongoing questions about capital access and covenant compliance. Shares fell following the report as investors weighed those structural pressures against management's forward guidance, which targets 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of negative $20 million to positive $40 million, representing roughly $170 million of year-over-year improvement, alongside revenues of $1.50 billion to $1.70 billion.
- Capitated revenue PMPM improved 9% year-over-year in Q4 to $1,060
- Intentional network alignment reduced at-risk membership by approximately 9% year-over-year
- Strengthened contract economics and improved provider alignment
- Normalized Adjusted EBITDA improved $43.9 million year-over-year for full year 2025
- Medical claims expense exceeded capitated revenue in Q4, driving negative medical margin
“2025 was a year of meaningful progress in repositioning the business. We strengthened our contract economics, improved provider alignment, and built a more disciplined operating foundation. With that work in place, we enter 2026 with a clear path to profitability and approximately $170 million of expected year-over-year EBITDA improvement at the midpoint of our guidance range.”
P3 Health Partners CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
P3 provided 2026 full-year guidance with Adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of negative $20 million to positive $40 million, with a midpoint of $10 million, representing approximately $170 million of year-over-year improvement. Total revenues are expected between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion. Medical margin is guided at $160 million to $200 million, with medical margin PMPM of $120 to $150. At-risk membership is expected between 107,000 and 117,000. The company also noted a new Medicare Advantage geography with a deliberate glidepath toward full risk to strengthen long-term earnings power.
PIII YoY Financials
PIII Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.