Molson Coors Beverage Company - Class B
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −4.25%.
Did TAP Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Molson Coors delivered a mixed fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, squeezing out a bottom-line beat while falling short on the top line amid persistent volume pressure across its core markets. The brewer reported underlying diluted EPS of $1.21, clearing the $1.16 consensus estimate by 4.31%, but net sales of $2.66 billion came in 1.46% below expectations and declined 2.7% year over year, as an 8.5% drop in Americas financial volume, driven largely by a 5.1% decline in U.S. brand volumes, weighed heavily on results. Favorable pricing and sales mix provided only partial relief against the volume shortfall and roughly $35 million in unfavorable Midwest Premium aluminum surcharges. Looking ahead, management's 2026 outlook offers little near-term comfort, with the company guiding for flat net sales but an 11% to 15% decline in underlying EPS, pressured by continued commodity inflation. A newly announced three-year cost savings program targeting up to $450 million is expected to begin offsetting those headwinds starting in 2026, alongside a $2 billion expansion of the company's share repurchase authorization.
- Lower financial volumes driven by macroeconomic softness and industry weakness, particularly in the U.S.
- Favorable price and sales mix partially offsetting volume declines, with net sales per hectoliter up 5.5% reported
- Cost inflation in materials and manufacturing including approximately $20 million unfavorable Midwest Premium aluminum pricing impact in Q4
- Lower short-term incentive compensation expense of approximately $30 million in Q4
- EMEA&APAC underlying pretax income surged 114.5% in constant currency driven by lower MG&A and increased net pricing
- U.S. brand volumes declined 5.1% due to industry softness and lower share performance in above premium and premium segments
- Americas financial volume declined 8.5% including approximately 2% impact from lower contract brewing and approximately 2% from lower distributor inventories
“Despite a number of macroeconomic issues impacting our industry and our category, we navigated a tough year to protect and deliver on our revised bottom-line expectations while narrowly missing our top-line guidance. We have a solid platform with our brands, infrastructure and people, and a strong balance sheet to weather this macro volatility. We made the necessary difficult decisions in our business to course correct and set ourselves up for the future. Our iconic brands resonate with consumers, and we are excited about our plans to unite people around our portfolio.”
Molson Coors CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For full year 2026, Molson Coors expects net sales flat plus or minus 1% versus 2025 on a constant currency basis. Underlying income before income taxes is expected to decline 15% to 18% in constant currency, and underlying EPS is expected to decline 11% to 15%. Capital expenditures are guided at approximately $650 million (±5%), underlying free cash flow at approximately $1.1 billion (±10%), underlying depreciation and amortization at $720 million (±5%), consolidated net interest expense at $260 million (±5%), and underlying effective tax rate in the range of 22% to 24%. The company expects commodity inflation, particularly elevated Midwest Premium aluminum pricing, to be a meaningful headwind in 2026, which management does not believe is reflective of longer-term performance. A three-year cost savings program targeting up to $450 million was announced, with savings beginning in 2026. Medium-term growth objectives target low single-digit net sales growth, mid single-digit underlying pretax income growth, and high single-digit underlying EPS growth.
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.