Q4 23 EPS
$N/A
Est. $-0.14
Q4 23 Revenue
N/A
Est. $134.9M
vs S&P Since Q4 23
-39.8%
TRAILING MARKET
UPST +15.3% vs S&P +55.1%
Market Reaction
Did UPST Beat Earnings? Q4 2023 Results
Upstart Holdings delivered a tale of two metrics in Q2 2026, posting revenue that cleared Wall Street's bar while earnings fell well short of expectations. The AI lending platform reported $364.71 million in total revenue, a 41.8% year-over-year gain… Read more Upstart Holdings delivered a tale of two metrics in Q2 2026, posting revenue that cleared Wall Street's bar while earnings fell well short of expectations. The AI lending platform reported $364.71 million in total revenue, a 41.8% year-over-year gain that edged past the $352.23 million consensus estimate by 3.54%, yet GAAP diluted EPS of $0.16 missed the $0.55 analyst estimate by 70.68%, a gap driven largely by swelling operating expenses across sales, engineering, and general administration that together topped $288 million for the quarter. The core growth engine remained loan originations, which climbed 50% year-over-year to $4.23 billion across more than 558,000 loans, with 91% fully automated, underscoring the scalability of its AI underwriting model. A newly announced $4 billion loan purchase agreement with Castlelake-managed funds added a constructive funding backdrop to the results. Management held its full-year 2026 outlook steady, continuing to project total revenue of approximately $1.40 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $294 million at a 21% margin.
Key Takeaways
- • Originations up 50% YoY to $4.2 billion with 558,014 loans originated
- • Revenue from fees up 45% YoY to $348 million
- • Re-acceleration of growth in core personal loans with unsecured segment Contribution Margin of 62%
- • 91% of loans fully automated
- • Conversion rate of 19.7%
UPST YoY Financials
Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022, source: SEC Filings
UPST Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“We came into this quarter with a clear plan, and we executed against it — re-accelerating growth in core personal loans, moving our secured products rapidly toward profitability, and funding that growth without adding equity capital. The results speak for themselves: originations up 50% year-over-year and we returned to GAAP profitability, with an all-time-high Contribution Profit.”
— Paul Gu, Q4 2023 Earnings Press Release
UPST Earnings Trends
UPST vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
UPST EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
UPST Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
UPST Quarterly Results
7 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 MISS | $0.55 | $0.16 | -70.68% | $364.7M | +3.54% |
| Q1 26 | $0.43 | — | — | $308.2M | +1.59% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.46 | $0.17 | -63.13% | $296.1M | +2.61% |
| FY Full Year | $1.67 | $0.45 | -73.08% | $1.04B | +0.72% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.42 | $0.52 | +23.43% | $277.1M | -0.90% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.25 | $0.36 | +41.62% | $257.3M | +14.15% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $0.17 | $0.30 | +75.85% | $213.4M | +6.02% |
| Q4 23 | $-0.14 | — | — | — | — |