Waste Management Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.98%.
Did WM Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Waste Management came up just short of Wall Street's expectations in Q4 2025, posting adjusted diluted EPS of $1.93 against a $1.95 consensus estimate — a 1.03% miss — while revenue of $6.31 billion trailed the $6.40 billion forecast by 1.41%, even as top-line sales climbed 7.1% year-over-year. The primary drag came from commodity headwinds: recycled commodity pricing tumbled to roughly $62 per ton in the quarter from $87 per ton a year earlier, while renewable fuel standard credits also declined, weighing on results that were otherwise operationally strong. Beneath those pressures, WM achieved its best-ever operating expense ratio for both Q4 and the full year, and full-year adjusted operating EBITDA margin cleared 30% for the first time. The Stericycle-acquired Healthcare Solutions segment continued integrating smoothly, with margins expanding to 16.9% for the year. Looking ahead, <a href="https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2026/02/05/waste-management-nyse-wm-stock-price-prediction-and-forecast-2025-2030/">WM's long-term outlook</a> is underpinned by 2026 guidance calling for revenue of $26.80–$27.00 billion and free cash flow growth of nearly 30% at the midpoint, alongside approximately $3.50 billion in planned shareholder returns.
- Collection and Disposal core price of 6.3% and yield of 3.8% for full year 2025
- Record operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for Q4 and full year
- Technology and automation investments generating meaningful efficiencies
- Front-line employee retention improvements
- Fleet capital investments and residential collection business optimization
- Healthcare Solutions integration progress driving margin expansion
- Wildfire cleanup volume contributed 50 basis points to Collection and Disposal volume
“2025 was a year of disciplined execution for WM. We delivered record performance in operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for both the fourth quarter and the full year, resulting in our best full-year adjusted operating EBITDA margin. Our investments in technology and automation continue to generate meaningful efficiencies, contributing to structurally enhanced margins and stronger cash generation. We are also building momentum in the strategic growth of our recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare solutions businesses as we position WM as the leading provider of comprehensive environmental solutions.”
Waste Management CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, WM expects revenue of $26.8–$27.0 billion, adjusted operating EBITDA of $8.225–$8.375 billion, and free cash flow of $3.625–$3.925 billion (nearly 30% growth at midpoint). Collection and Disposal growth is expected to be driven by core price of 5.4%–5.8%, yield of 3.2%–3.6%, and volume of 0.2%–0.6%. Solid waste acquisition rollover expected to contribute ~$65 million in revenue and ~$25 million in adjusted operating EBITDA. Sustainability businesses (Recycling Processing and Sales, Renewable Energy segments, and landfill gas royalties) are expected to grow adjusted operating EBITDA by $235–$255 million. Healthcare Solutions revenue expected to grow ~3% driven by price with further margin expansion. The company plans ~$3.5 billion in shareholder returns including ~$1.5 billion in dividends and ~$2 billion in share repurchases, with an intended annual dividend increase of $0.48/share to $3.78. By 2027, sustainability-related adjusted operating EBITDA is expected to approach $1 billion at current market prices.
WM YoY Financials
WM Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.