Nike Crashes 11% in 2016, Worst Among Dow Stocks

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Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), recently announced it would drop is golf club business. Apparently something much greater is wrong with the athletic wear company. Its shares are off 10.64% this year to $55.85, the largest drop of any Dow Jones Industrial Average component.

The drop is worse than it seems at first. The Dow is up 6.42% to 18,543.52 for 2016. Twenty-five of the 30 stocks are higher, with 11 up in the double digits.

Much of the worry about Nike is that it has ever more competition, from the very large and direct competitor Adidas to the nimble and fast-growing Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA), as well as China’s Li-Ning and ANTA Sports Products. As is the case with many consumer products companies, China is critical to Nike’s future. Local firms often have an edge, as American personal computer firms and Apple have discovered.

Despite ongoing growth (and Nike bills itself as a growth company), Nike’s results in its most recent quarter were lackluster:

  • Fourth quarter revenues up 6 percent to $8.2 billion; 9 percent growth excluding currency changes
  • Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share flat to prior year at $0.49
  • Fiscal 2016 revenues up 6 percent to $32.4 billion; 12 percent growth excluding currency
    changes
  • Fiscal 2016 diluted earnings per share up 17 percent to $2.16
  • Worldwide futures orders up 8 percent; 11 percent growth excluding currency changes
  • Inventories as of May 31, 2016 up 12 percent

For a while, Europe giant Adidas faltered recently, which helped Nike’s global market share. The German’s company’s problems appear to be largely behind it. According to Investor’s Business Daily:

Nike rival Adidas ramped up its full-year forecast for the fourth time this calendar year, once again citing “strong brand momentum.”

Ahead of its second-quarter earnings report on Aug. 4, Adidas said it now expects a sales growth rate, minus currency impacts, in the “high teens,” up from prior guidance for 15% in revenue gains for the year. And it sees net income from continuing operations growing 35%-39%, vs. its earlier outlook for 25% growth.

The company also reported preliminary Q2 revenue growth of 21% and basic EPS that doubled from the prior-year quarter.

Nike’s shares are down the most of any Dow stock so far this year, thanks to China and Adidas.