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Economy

US Economy Boomed In Q3, But Peril May Be Ahead

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Published
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The US economy  roared back from nearly two years of deep recession in the third quarter of this year.

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a regular poll of top economists, says that GDP rose 3.2% in the period. This data, collected last week, is .2% better than the forecast from a month ago.

The caution from the survey is that GDP growth for the current quarter will probably only be 2.4%. One-time events like the “cash for clunkers’ program helped Q3.  The economists also expected that joblessness will average 10% over the next three quarters.

The Blue Chip forecast does not get into the issue of a double-dip recession, but the predictions from the survey point to the growing likelihood of one. GDP will move down quarter-over-quarter in the final two periods of the year and from October 1 to June 30, joblessness will be at a level unprecedented in the modern economy both in its depth and its duration.

There is no economic model which is set up to accurately show what the effects of devastating  joblessness will do to consumer spending and business profits. The uncharted territory makes normal forecasting impossible and creating policy decisions to help the economy all the more difficult.

The Blue Chip survey really only points to a single good quarter. Its whispered message is that the economy could still get much worse again.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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