Economists think that growth of the US GDP will continue to slow into the second half of the year and then into 2009. Their opinions are too upbeat.
The monthly poll by Blue Chip Economic Indicators says that those surveyed expect U.S. gross domestic product to grow at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, down 0.1 percentage point from the consensus July forecast.
Based on the fall-off in consumer spending a month after tax-payers received tax rebate checks, it is hard to imagine that things will be that good.
According to Reuters, "In the fourth quarter, the economy is now seen expanding at a pace of just 0.3 percent — a drop of 0.3 percentage point from July."
Most economists missed the start of the downturn in GDP. It now appears that they will miss forecasting its depth.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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