Durable goods orders for July were reported Tuesday morning. Regardless of the headlines, this is one of the most volatile readings from month to month. The July reading for durable goods orders is 22.6%, a huge increase from the June reading of 0.7% (which was revised up to 2.7%). If the headline number sounds shocking, there is a reason — this was the highest reading in about 20 years. Still, do not let the headline number fool you.
To prove just how volatile this economic report is, Dow Jones had a target of 7.5% while Bloomberg’s estimate was 5.1%. The range given by Bloomberg was -1.0% to 24.5%.
This gain is heavily influenced by aircraft and transportation. After looking beyond the first headline, the ex-transportation durable goods figure was down by 0.8%. June’s reading of a 0.8% gain was revised up to a gain of 3.0%. The total durable goods reading was $300.1 billion in July.
The crux of the durable goods is measured by nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft. This is considered the core reading for the rest of the economy, and it came in a drop with a reading of -0.5% in July.
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