U.S. manufacturing is continuing to slow down. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February 2015 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business on Monday, showing what was represented as the 26th consecutive month of expansion and the 69th consecutive month of growth for the overall economy. The reality is that growth is slowing ever closer to the flat line — the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slid by 0.6 points to 52.9%.
The New Orders Index fell by 0.4 points to 52.5%, and the Production Index fell 2.8 points to 53.7%. The Employment Index also fell by 2.7 points to 51.4%.
Inventories of raw materials rose by 1.5 points to 52.5%, while the Prices Index was flat at 35%.
Comments from the panel express a growing level of concern over the West Coast dock slowdown, negatively affecting exports and imports and requiring workarounds and added costs.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 showed growth in February in the following order: Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. Three of the 18 industries reporting contraction were as follows: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
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Our take is that it seems hard to imagine that the West Coast port shutdown is the sole reason for this ever lower growth. Another quote cited that lower oil and natural gas prices continue to put pressure on revenues. This may be slower growth, but it is still at least growth.
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