The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has released a stellar Report on Business for the non-manufacturing segment of the U.S. economy. With the index hitting 60.3% in July, this report actually is considered a total blowout on the upside of estimates.
Bloomberg was calling for a mere 56.2% in July, versus 56.0% in June, and the range of economists was 55.0% to 57.5%. Again, that is a total blowout by being almost three points higher than the top estimate. It may be the 66th consecutive run of growth, as well as close to a 10-year high.
The devil is almost always in the details. Here was a breakdown of the three main components:
- Business Activity Index at 64.9%, for a gain of 3.4 points
- New Orders Index at 63.8%, for a 5.5 point gain
- Employment Index at 59.6%, for a 6.9 point gain
What may be of interest here is that the Prices Index increased 0.7 percentage point from the June reading and rose to 53.7% in this report. This translates to what is now higher prices paid for the fifth consecutive month. Sure, this is on non-manufacturing, but the United States is often considered a post-manufacturing economy, and the Federal Reserve is looking and hoping for higher prices anywhere it can find them.
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Of the industry gain, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July and two reported contraction. The two with contraction may be of little surprise: mining and “other services.” As a reminder, mining includes oil and energy, for the most part.
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