Chance Clinton Will Be Nominee at 88%
Despite the Bernie Sanders sweep of three states this weekend, Hillary Clinton still enjoys an 88% chance she will become the Democratic nominee.
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Despite the Bernie Sanders sweep of three states this weekend, Hillary Clinton still enjoys an 88% chance she will become the Democratic nominee.
ElectionBettingOdds.com, which tracks the probability a candidate will become the nominee, as well as which candidate will win the general election, has Clinton at 88.1% in the primary race. Sanders is at 10.2%, and Joe Biden has a small fraction.
Sanders clobbered Clinton in the contests in Hawaii, Alaska and Washington state. However, Clinton still has a massive lead in delegates at 1,243, against the 2,823 needed to win the nomination. Sanders has 974, which is why he grabs only the 10% probability of success.
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The data beg the question of whether gamblers have a better grip on the election than political experts do. Probably no better, because so many pundits believe Sanders has such a little chance that he should drop out of the race and allow Clinton to focus on criticizing Donald Trump. Trump’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee are 70%, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com.
Even at 10%, Sanders appears willing to take his case to the convention, which is probably why Clinton’s odds are not closer to 100%.
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Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.
McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.
His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.
