Chicago Fed Shows Continued National Economic Trends in February

By Jon C. Ogg Updated Jan 12, 1:47PM EST · Published Mar 20, 11:20AM EDT

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Chicago Fed Shows Continued National Economic Trends in February — © Thinkstock

[cnxvideo id=”655407″ placement=”ros”]If you were expecting a federal funds rate hike from the Federal Reserve, you have likely noticed that economic data from the past 60 days has been stronger and stronger. Now there is a national report issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showing that economic growth increased in the month of February.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.34 in February from –0.02 in January. While all four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January, only one of the four categories made a negative contribution to the index in February.

February’s gains were led by improvements in employment-related indicators, which contributed +0.21 points to the index in February, up from +0.06 in January.

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As of March 17, 2017, February data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories:

Production and income
Employment, unemployment and hours
Personal consumption and housing
Sales, orders and inventories

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI edged up to +0.09 in February from +0.04 in January. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI increased to –0.03 in February from –0.11 in January.

The index’s three-month moving average hit a +0.25 reading, the highest level since December 2014. The economic growth suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index moved up to +0.17 in February from +0.02 in January.

Again, this is a national report, even though it is created inside of a regional Federal Reserve branch.

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About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.