A Possible Crest in GDP Declines
We just got our first look at the Q1-2009 GDP. The initial report shows -6.1%, much worse than expected but not as bad as the -6.3% in Q4-2008. Bloomberg had estimates at -5.0% for…
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Newest first · Page 388Confidence Trying To Go Positive
The Conference Board’s reading on Consumer Confidence just popped to 39.2 for the month of April. This is above a reading of 26.9 revised for March from a preliminary 26.0 reading. We had estimates…
Dubai, And Other Rich Nations, Hit The Road To Reality
The recently rich nations of the Middle East and Russia are learning that having a lot of money is not all that it is cracked up to be, especially when the money goes away.…
The Government’s Forecast If Flu Problem Explodes: Two Million Americans Die
Somewhere in the basement of a government warehouse, federal employees with too little to do have come up with estimates of the what the effects of an all-out flu pandemic would be. Like most estimates, these…
The Economy Looks Beyond The Recession To Disease And Terrorism
There are many fears about the swine flu outbreak. It is not simply that it could cause the death of thousands or in the case of a pandemic, perhaps millions. Other fears are economic…
Anatomy Of Economic Rumors: Swine Flu Unlikely To Have Impact On Economy
The media has been hyper-focused this weekend on the news that more than 1,000 people in Mexico have become infected with Swine flu, also known as Influenza A H1N1. Nearly 90 people have died…
March Durables & Revisions Bad Enough To Influence GDP Expectations
We have just seen the highly volatile Durable Goods numbers released this morning. The numbers from the Commerce Department came in at -0.8%. This was a bit better than expectations as Bloomberg had forecasts…
Nouriel Roubini: Has Pessimism Worn Out Its Welcome?
Nouriel Roubini, whose pessimistic notes to investors have become redundant, has passed along his latest predictions of the economy and, to hear him tell it, we are all going to hell. At his website,…
Is Business Becoming More Optimistic?
In one of the surveys about national economic prospects that grabs big headlines but may say very little about real trends, the National Association for Business Economics is saying that companies think that the…
A Minority Report Challenges US Economic Improvement
The President says he sees a faint light at the end of the tunnel. So does the Treasury Secretary and head of the Fed. They are joined by Lawrence Summers, who, not so long…
Bottom For Real Estate Far Away As Foreclosures Rise
The foreclosure rates on homes in the US is still rising sharply, which is bad news for banks and almost anyone trying to sell a house. It could also totally undermine the Administration’s plan to…
What Hyper-Inflation?
If you were worried about all this new money that has been coming into the system and its effects on inflation, you have at least another month (or much longer) before the worries will…
Fixing GM (GM) May Just Be Practice For The Government’s Next Bailout
GM’s (GM) stock trades at $1.71, which is not even its 52-week low. Several news outlets have reported that the Treasury has asked the No.1 US car company to prepare for Chapter 11. The…
As China Slows US Debt Purchases, Will Treasury Rates Rise
The Administration is going to have to raise hundreds of billons of dollars to support its stimulus package, budget, and mortgage bail-out programs. Several things could make the process difficult, and the most troubling…
Confirmed: First-Half Budget Deficit $1 Trillion
As 24/7 Wall St. mentioned in an earlier post, the Federal budget deficit was nearly $1 trillion. The Treasury department issued its numbers today. CBO came out with its figures three days ago. 24/7: …