Energy

Partly Sunny Outlook for Solar Stocks in 2014

The solar PV industry has risen from the almost-dead in 2013, after two years of falling prices, overproduction and government subsidy cuts. The companies that recovered the fastest were those with project pipelines for building new utility-scale solar plants. But other solar-related businesses flourished too, and we took a look at five U.S.-based solar sector players to see if a good value choice was available. Here is our take.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has seen its share price double in the past 12 months, and it is the worst performing of all the stocks we’re looking at! But that is still off an all-time high of about $190 in May of 2009. Yet, it seems odd that the stock jumped so much when you consider that sales guidance for the year was effectively trimmed by about $200 million while it simultaneously raised its earnings guidance. The stock closed at $59.78 on Thursday, and the consensus analyst price target of around $46.50 indicates that the stock is far more than fully valued. Shares have traded in a range of $24.26 to $65.99 over the past year. With a fiscal year 2014 earnings per share estimate of $3.40, it is valued at more than 17 times expected earnings.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) was the unquestioned darling of solar stocks over the past 12 months, with shares gaining an incredible 575%. Shares have given back about 12% since the 52-week high was posted in mid-October, but from a share price under $5 a year ago, SunPower’s resurrection has been phenomenal. The stock closed at $30.78 on Thursday, and the consensus analyst price target of around $31.40 works out to an implied upside of around 2%. Shares have traded in a range of $4.65 to $35.39 over the past year. With a fiscal year 2014 earnings per share estimate of $1.20, it is valued at more than 25 times expected earnings.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) stock rose 180% in the past year. The maker of the machines that solar companies use to make their own cells, modules, and panels announced Thursday that it had completed a new note offering and secondary offering of 8.65 million shares which caused the shares to lose about 12% in three days. The stock closed at $8.89 on Thursday and the consensus analyst price target of around $11.75 works out to an implied upside of around 32%. Shares have traded in a range of $2.61 to $10.75 over the last 12 months. With a fiscal year 2014 earnings per share estimate of $0.10, it is valued at more than 86-times expected earnings.

SunEdison Inc. (NYSE: SUNE) shares have gained more than 350% in the past year, and the company plans to spin off of its semiconductor wafer business in the first quarter of 2014. When SunEdison reported earnings in early November, the firm said it may spin off some of its solar plants next year rather than sell them to customers. That juiced the stock by $3 a share. SunEdison’s shares closed at $13.46 Thursday, in a 52-week range of $2.93 to $13.83. The consensus price target on the shares is about $15.00, implying an upside of 11%. Fiscal year 2014 earnings are currently forecast at $0.57 a share, which values the stock at about 23.5 times expected earnings.

SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) stock has risen nearly 370% since the solar installation company came public almost exactly a year ago. One thing to keep in mind about SolarCity is that analysts expect the company to post earnings losses in both 2013 and 2014. The company also said earlier this week that it will offer a battery-storage solution developed with Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). The two companies are both controlled by Elon Musk, which does not hurt in the rock star market. Shares of SolarCity closed at $53.89 Thursday, in a 52-week range of $9.20 to $65.30. The consensus price target on the shares is about $62.25, implying an upside of 15.5%. Fiscal year 2014 earnings are currently forecast at $0.57 a share, which values the stock at about 23.5 times expected earnings. The projected earnings losses eliminate any forward P/E ratio.

Of these solar stocks, only First Solar trades anywhere remotely near a normal forward multiple, but the stock is fully valued at its current price. That makes recommending the company as a value pick a bit of a stretch. And GT Advanced Technologies, with a forward multiple of 86 and a potential upside of about 32%, may be a value trap and not an opportunity.

Of the three remaining stocks, only SunEdison could even remotely be considered a value pick, and its upside of only 11% and forward multiple of around 24 make even that a stretch. SolarCity, with a potential upside of 15.5% and continuing losses for at least another year, might be a good choice for an investor who believes the sky’s the limit in the solar sector. You know who you are.

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