IEA Expects Oil Demand Will Rise
In its April Oil Market Reports, IEA experts:
…raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90 000 barrels per day (90 kb/d) to 93.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), a gain of 1.1 mb/d on the year, informing subscribers that the notable acceleration from 2014’s 0.7 mb/d growth builds on cold first-quarter temperatures and a steadily improving global economic backdrop.
Oddly, organizations that include the World Bank have revised their forecasts for global growth downward.
Changes in refinery activity will also have an effect:
Global refinery crude demand is expected to fall seasonally to 77.3 mb/d in the current quarter, from 78 mb/d in the first quarter of the year. While Atlantic Basin refiners mostly completed turnarounds in the last quarter, Asian refinery maintenance is set to ramp up sharply this quarter, with up to 2.5 mb/d of distillation capacity offline at its peak in May
Crude has already jumped back to over $50, and the number likely will rise.